Matty_UK
1st January 2010, 07:51
This is more of a fantasy-speculation topic than a serious thread, so I decided to post it in chit-chat. What scenarios do you the see leading to a Communist victory in the next century, or if you don't see any scenarios what do you predict we have ahead in rest of the 21st century?
Best case scenario: Communism Will Win
Between 2010 and 2015, the economic crisis will worsen due to the bailout money being used on the same short-sighted speculation that led to the crisis in the first place, only this time national coffers the world over will be empty so no money can be used to prop up the banks. The collapse of the public sector will exacerbate the crisis, leading to the first global bankruptcy. The reaction from the public will be largely politically confused and consist of aimless rioting and looting. The radical left will grow somewhat but not drastically, apart from in certain European countries (e.g. France, Greece) where they will begin to constitute a mass movement. There will be a trend towards political authoritarianism and martial law, combined with heavy handed witch-hunting of the radical left, forcing them to become an underground movement, albeit with greater public sympathy but demonised by the media.
In the US, the relatively mild left wing and labour reaction to the crisis, combined with panic over events in Europe, will cause wild conspiracy theories about a communist takeover and will be met with violent vigilante action by the Glenn Beck/Tea Party types, combined with a coup d'etat led by the most reactionary militaristic wing of big business (the liberal elites will do nothing) and by the military, who will attempt to reverse American decline through military means, and alleviate the crisis through military spending and absorbing the unemployed through conscription. They will attack Iran, causing a series of events that lead to a spiral of generalised war in the Middle East, and ruthless occupation of most of the region. However, conscription of liberals and relatively sensible Americans in the military will sap morale and there will be some sporadic munities and defections.
By 2020, Russia and China will ally as an anti-US bloc, but won't risk direct confrontation, knowing it would mean mutual annihilation. They will instead give assistance to insurgents, and fuelled by similar reasons to the US militarisation will establish a military presence in Africa, and face US/EU sponsored insurgencies, in a "hot cold war." European countries, nominally allied with the US, will in turn establish their own military presence in Africa, in a renewed worldwide struggle for hegemony using "humanitarian intervention" and Europe's moral superiority to Russian and Chinese despotism as an acceptable-in-Europe excuse, but not THAT acceptable.
Latin America's leftwards drift will sharply accelerate, leading to socialist revolution across the continent by 2020, and the establishment of unified socialist government across the continent.
At the same time, India's Maoists will gain even greater public sympathy in India, as large scale military confrontation with them begins in 2010, which will be seen by most Indians as ruthless repression. The economic crisis in turn will swell their ranks, and see their influence spread to the cities - Bangladesh and Sri Lanka will see similar copycat movements as the crisis deepens. The Maoists will be victorious around a similar time to the Latin American left, and revolution with help from revolutionary India will rapidly spread to Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka who will form a unified government, and a mutual self-defense pact with the revolutionary Latin American states.
China and Russia will find themselves allied with the US and the Eurozone in response to the revolutionary crisis and will attempt to militarily defeat the South Asian Soviet Bloc. The still largely socialist Chinese working class and peasantry will see it as the CCPs final betrayal to send them to fight against Maoists, and refuse to fight. The Russian working class likewise will be struck by the historical parrellels of the still much respected October Revolution, and will likewise mutiny rather than fight, and Russia and China will likewise begin revolutions.
The US will move in to attack Latin America, but by this point anti-war sentiment within the ranks will become unmanageable and the troops will mutiny. In the middle east there will be mass desertions and defections to the revolutionary movements in Asia and a victory for the insurgents, who will by this point be split between communists and islamists - the middle east will be plunged into civil war between these factions, but the communists will secure a rapid victory. The US itself will be plunged into a drawn out civil war, with no decisive victory for the communists for many years.
France will see the first revolution in Europe, and other western European elites, cut off from public opinion, will believe that their propaganda in the media represents public opinion and attempt to militarily defeat the French revolution - however likewise, the soldiers will join the revolution rather than fight.
By 2025, a global socialist federation will be established across Asia, Europe, and South America and will direct it's attentions towards ensuring Communist victory in the US civil war.
The Russian, European, and Chinese military presence in Africa will incorporate the continent into the socialist federation and direct it's attentions towards economic development. By 2030, the first global government and end to the Final World War will be formally announced.
2030 to 2050 will be marked by humanity working together to alleviate poverty which will become a thing of history by 2050, and by united humanitarian efforts to deal with the consequences of climate change and introduce green technology, and global projects to automate repetitive, boring jobs, as well as the destruction of the worlds nuclear arsenal. Private cars will be abolished in favour of a wide ranging, free, and highly advanced global network of public transport, making it once again safe for children to run free playing in the street. National borders will become a thing of the past, and the difference between city and countryside will be progressively eliminated. Communities will be made self sufficient with highly advanced, low-labour agricultural zones and small scale, green, automated local production, for the community to utilise when necassary according to need, causing the global socialist state to gradually fade away. The concept of careers and wages will gradually disappear as work becomes a voluntary and shared task. Community life will see spirituality make a surprise comeback, but will be compatible with science and increasingly stripped of superstitious content. Community life and agriculture will see a return of diverse, authentic and unique traditions, festivals and customs and different local characters and cuisine. Fast food will be abolished and organic food will become the norm. Community life and abolition of advertising will ensure the enforcement of positive community values and crime will all but cease to exist. Due to the ability of the community as a whole to provide for children, the family system will gradually disappear in the final emancipation of woman, and the concept of a father will become relatively unimportant, with male role models instead being numerous. Think something like the matriarchal Mosuo tribe - http://www.spiegel.de/international/...627363,00.html (http://www.spiegel.de/international/zeitgeist/0,1518,627363,00.html)
By 2050-60 this process will be complete marking the end of the transition from socialism to communism, and humanity will enter a new golden age marked by rapid scientific progress and creative genius, with space exploration and terraforming becoming the defining global project, and the first thriving, independant Martian colonies will be established by 2100.
Worst case scenario - initially the same as above, except there is no revolution and instead we are plunged into either a dark age or exctinction by environmental catastrophe and nuclear war.
Best case scenario: Communism Will Win
Between 2010 and 2015, the economic crisis will worsen due to the bailout money being used on the same short-sighted speculation that led to the crisis in the first place, only this time national coffers the world over will be empty so no money can be used to prop up the banks. The collapse of the public sector will exacerbate the crisis, leading to the first global bankruptcy. The reaction from the public will be largely politically confused and consist of aimless rioting and looting. The radical left will grow somewhat but not drastically, apart from in certain European countries (e.g. France, Greece) where they will begin to constitute a mass movement. There will be a trend towards political authoritarianism and martial law, combined with heavy handed witch-hunting of the radical left, forcing them to become an underground movement, albeit with greater public sympathy but demonised by the media.
In the US, the relatively mild left wing and labour reaction to the crisis, combined with panic over events in Europe, will cause wild conspiracy theories about a communist takeover and will be met with violent vigilante action by the Glenn Beck/Tea Party types, combined with a coup d'etat led by the most reactionary militaristic wing of big business (the liberal elites will do nothing) and by the military, who will attempt to reverse American decline through military means, and alleviate the crisis through military spending and absorbing the unemployed through conscription. They will attack Iran, causing a series of events that lead to a spiral of generalised war in the Middle East, and ruthless occupation of most of the region. However, conscription of liberals and relatively sensible Americans in the military will sap morale and there will be some sporadic munities and defections.
By 2020, Russia and China will ally as an anti-US bloc, but won't risk direct confrontation, knowing it would mean mutual annihilation. They will instead give assistance to insurgents, and fuelled by similar reasons to the US militarisation will establish a military presence in Africa, and face US/EU sponsored insurgencies, in a "hot cold war." European countries, nominally allied with the US, will in turn establish their own military presence in Africa, in a renewed worldwide struggle for hegemony using "humanitarian intervention" and Europe's moral superiority to Russian and Chinese despotism as an acceptable-in-Europe excuse, but not THAT acceptable.
Latin America's leftwards drift will sharply accelerate, leading to socialist revolution across the continent by 2020, and the establishment of unified socialist government across the continent.
At the same time, India's Maoists will gain even greater public sympathy in India, as large scale military confrontation with them begins in 2010, which will be seen by most Indians as ruthless repression. The economic crisis in turn will swell their ranks, and see their influence spread to the cities - Bangladesh and Sri Lanka will see similar copycat movements as the crisis deepens. The Maoists will be victorious around a similar time to the Latin American left, and revolution with help from revolutionary India will rapidly spread to Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka who will form a unified government, and a mutual self-defense pact with the revolutionary Latin American states.
China and Russia will find themselves allied with the US and the Eurozone in response to the revolutionary crisis and will attempt to militarily defeat the South Asian Soviet Bloc. The still largely socialist Chinese working class and peasantry will see it as the CCPs final betrayal to send them to fight against Maoists, and refuse to fight. The Russian working class likewise will be struck by the historical parrellels of the still much respected October Revolution, and will likewise mutiny rather than fight, and Russia and China will likewise begin revolutions.
The US will move in to attack Latin America, but by this point anti-war sentiment within the ranks will become unmanageable and the troops will mutiny. In the middle east there will be mass desertions and defections to the revolutionary movements in Asia and a victory for the insurgents, who will by this point be split between communists and islamists - the middle east will be plunged into civil war between these factions, but the communists will secure a rapid victory. The US itself will be plunged into a drawn out civil war, with no decisive victory for the communists for many years.
France will see the first revolution in Europe, and other western European elites, cut off from public opinion, will believe that their propaganda in the media represents public opinion and attempt to militarily defeat the French revolution - however likewise, the soldiers will join the revolution rather than fight.
By 2025, a global socialist federation will be established across Asia, Europe, and South America and will direct it's attentions towards ensuring Communist victory in the US civil war.
The Russian, European, and Chinese military presence in Africa will incorporate the continent into the socialist federation and direct it's attentions towards economic development. By 2030, the first global government and end to the Final World War will be formally announced.
2030 to 2050 will be marked by humanity working together to alleviate poverty which will become a thing of history by 2050, and by united humanitarian efforts to deal with the consequences of climate change and introduce green technology, and global projects to automate repetitive, boring jobs, as well as the destruction of the worlds nuclear arsenal. Private cars will be abolished in favour of a wide ranging, free, and highly advanced global network of public transport, making it once again safe for children to run free playing in the street. National borders will become a thing of the past, and the difference between city and countryside will be progressively eliminated. Communities will be made self sufficient with highly advanced, low-labour agricultural zones and small scale, green, automated local production, for the community to utilise when necassary according to need, causing the global socialist state to gradually fade away. The concept of careers and wages will gradually disappear as work becomes a voluntary and shared task. Community life will see spirituality make a surprise comeback, but will be compatible with science and increasingly stripped of superstitious content. Community life and agriculture will see a return of diverse, authentic and unique traditions, festivals and customs and different local characters and cuisine. Fast food will be abolished and organic food will become the norm. Community life and abolition of advertising will ensure the enforcement of positive community values and crime will all but cease to exist. Due to the ability of the community as a whole to provide for children, the family system will gradually disappear in the final emancipation of woman, and the concept of a father will become relatively unimportant, with male role models instead being numerous. Think something like the matriarchal Mosuo tribe - http://www.spiegel.de/international/...627363,00.html (http://www.spiegel.de/international/zeitgeist/0,1518,627363,00.html)
By 2050-60 this process will be complete marking the end of the transition from socialism to communism, and humanity will enter a new golden age marked by rapid scientific progress and creative genius, with space exploration and terraforming becoming the defining global project, and the first thriving, independant Martian colonies will be established by 2100.
Worst case scenario - initially the same as above, except there is no revolution and instead we are plunged into either a dark age or exctinction by environmental catastrophe and nuclear war.