How to meet future demand for minerals

[Technocrat]

I'm preparing a series of talks relating to Technocracy and one of the questions I need to answer is where the needed materials will come from. Metals can be recycled and we can harness renewable energy sources, so those are not a problem. My concern is whether or not we can meet our future need for minerals through recycling, improved efficiency of use, substituting non-mineral materials or more abundant minerals where possible, etc. Are there any essential minerals that we can't recycle, and can't find any substitutions for? Any data here would be greatly appreciated.

[mikelepore]

I expect petroleum will be the biggest challenge for the chemists. Even if we had new energy sources so we wouldn't have to burn it, petroleum is still used to make plastic, rubber, drugs, soap, textiles, paint, etc.

[Technocrat]

Yeah that won't be a huge problem in a Technate due to recycling and greatly improved efficiency of use.

I'm not concerned with energy or metals, just minerals specifically.

[mikelepore]

Ambiguous. The meaning of the word "minerals" in mining is not the same as the meaning of the same word in geology.

[Technocrat]

I mean non-energy minerals:

Specialty Metals/Metalloids
• Antimony
• Arsenic
• Barite
• Beryllium
• Cadmium
• Chromium
• Cobalt
• Gallium
• Germanium
• Hafnium
• Indium
• Lithium
• Magnesium
• Manganese
• Mercury
• Molybdenum
• Niobium
• REM (Rare Earth Metals)
• Rhenium
• Strontium
• Tantalum
• Tellurium
• Thallium
• Titanium
• Tungsten
• Vanadium
• Zirconium

Industrial/Construction Minerals
• Bromine
• Cement
• Diamond
• Fluorspar
• Garnet (Industrial)
• Graphite
• Gypsum
• Lime
• Nitrogen (fixed—ammonia)
• Phosphate Rock
• Potash
• Quartz
• Salt
• Selenium
• Silicon
• Soda Ash
• Sulfur

[jake williams]

I don't think the question can be answered in general. Logically there's three possibilities: stop demand of the resource, get it from off the planet, or eventually recycle what's on the planet. But this is on a radically different timescale for specific resources. As was mentioned, the concern about oil is pretty urgent. Others are more abundant. But in the long run, if we keep using anything, either we'll have to reuse it eventually or harvest it from extraplanatory sources (the last, of course, not very likely to be a feasible option for a long, long time - I'm only adding it in because it closes the logical loop).

[Technocrat]

I wasn't looking for a general answer. I understand that the options are recycling, reduced demand, or space mining (I will ignore the last one).

The question is can we meet the future demand for minerals through recycling and reduced demand. Is there any data on this? Have any studies been done on this?

Minerals seem to be the most critical of the nonrenewable natural resources, because we can substitute other energy sources for fossil energy, and we can recycle most metals.

[jake williams]

The question is can we meet the future demand for minerals through recycling and reduced demand. Is there any data on this? Have any studies been done on this?
I think for the sorts of minerals you're talking about, for the most part no. It should be said though that over the long term it's very difficult to predict the demand for a particular commodity (given substitutes), and even harder to predict new technologies for recycling, mining etc. The studies should be done, but they're not generally a priority for capitalism and anyway they're very difficult to do, you can't do them with certainty because there's so much that just can't be predicted about how human technology and economy will change and develop.

[Technocrat]

I think for the sorts of minerals you're talking about, for the most part no. It should be said though that over the long term it's very difficult to predict the demand for a particular commodity (given substitutes), and even harder to predict new technologies for recycling, mining etc. The studies should be done, but they're not generally a priority for capitalism and anyway they're very difficult to do, you can't do them with certainty because there's so much that just can't be predicted about how human technology and economy will change and develop.

True if you're talking about capitalism. In a planned economy though (like communism or technocracy), that's exactly what happens - the planners predict how much of a certain commodity is needed and match production accordingly.

I would be interested to know if there are any minerals which are vital to our industrial processes, which can't be recycled and which there are no substitutes for.

[jake williams]

True if you're talking about capitalism. In a planned economy though (like communism or technocracy), that's exactly what happens - the planners predict how much of a certain commodity is needed and match production accordingly.

I would be interested to know if there are any minerals which are vital to our industrial processes, which can't be recycled and which there are no substitutes for.
I disagree - a planned economy in an advanced industrial economy with a lot of technological innovation (which is a good thing) will have to struggle to cope with the changes in demand for different commodities. It's not just, what substitutes will appear for certain substances used in particular industrial processes - it's, what new industrial processes we have. We can't say right now. We just can't predict what new inventions there will be, what they'll replace, etc.

[Technocrat]

I disagree - a planned economy in an advanced industrial economy with a lot of technological innovation (which is a good thing) will have to struggle to cope with the changes in demand for different commodities. It's not just, what substitutes will appear for certain substances used in particular industrial processes - it's, what new industrial processes we have. We can't say right now. We just can't predict what new inventions there will be, what they'll replace, etc.

Energy Accounting resolves the problem as it is a common measurement of all resource usage.

It doesn't matter if we can't predict what new machines or processes there will be. As soon as they are built you can tell how much more energy efficient they are compared to the old one, so Energy Accounting works the same.

The question is: are there any minerals we are currently using that have no substitutes and which can't be recycled?

[CommunistWaffle]

Petroleum will be and continue to be a major resource.

[mikelepore]

You can probably delete silicon from the worry list. There can't be a shortage of the most abundant element in the earth's crust.