When do you think that socialism will begin? in 2025?

[LeninistKing]

Hello, according to some economists, the US economy and the US dollar will collapse in the year 2025. And according to sociologist Immanuel Wallerstein capitalism might fall in about 10 to 30 years from today. So i would like for you guys to predict when do you think that we will see an objective revolutionary situation in the USA and the rise of the dictatorship of the proletariat (workers-state), in rich big countries like USA, Germany, UK, and in poorer countries as well like Africa, Middle East, Asia, Latin America, etc.

LeninistKing

[Panda Tse Tung]

I don't think you can predict such a thing ;). You can look at clues and make some vague assessments. But really predicting it is virtually impossible. Even if it's as vague as between now and 100 years.

Edit: But if this is just for fun I'd say the revolution starts in 2047.

[Q]

21 December 2012 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_phenomenon)

[ZeroNowhere]

September 14th on 2016, at 23 seconds past 8:10am.

[Muzk]

well it wont come on its own... so best get down to business asap

[Durruti's Ghost]

November 7, 2017. :thumbup1:

[Coggeh]

June 23rd 1996. We taking bets on this ?:thumbup1:

[ZeroNowhere]

I bet 10 minutes in labour credits.


Note that I may or may not actually follow up on this should somebody win this bet.

[red cat]

Hello, according to some economists, the US economy and the US dollar will collapse in the year 2025. And according to sociologist Immanuel Wallerstein capitalism might fall in about 10 to 30 years from today. So i would like for you guys to predict when do you think that we will see an objective revolutionary situation in the USA and the rise of the dictatorship of the proletariat (workers-state), in rich big countries like USA, Germany, UK, and in poorer countries as well like Africa, Middle East, Asia, Latin America, etc.

LeninistKingThe objective situation is already revolutionary everywhere. But developed countries won't have socialism that quickly. Of course, by 2025, quite a few third-world countries are expected to turn socialist.

[Q]

The objective situation is already revolutionary everywhere. But developed countries won't have socialism that quickly. Of course, by 2025, quite a few third-world countries are expected to turn socialist.
"Of course"?

[red cat]

"Of course"?Yes, "of course".

[Redmau5]

Yes, "of course".

And what makes you so certain?

[red cat]

And what makes you so certain?
The subjective conditions at more than one third-world country.

[Tifosi]

In 43 minutes

There is no way you can tell, can somebody on here read the future? Stupid thread IMO

[Psy]

The objective situation is already revolutionary everywhere. But developed countries won't have socialism that quickly. Of course, by 2025, quite a few third-world countries are expected to turn socialist.
I think it would be the other way, that all of a sudden a industrial nation has a revolution and makes all the revolutions in third-world countries look insignificant in comparison as the industrial nation(s) would have the means to actually implement socialism.

[Spawn of Stalin]

You can't put a date on it, but I don't imagine it will happen until at least half of the third world has gone socialist. With Asia, Africa and Latin America developing socialist economies of their own there will be no countries for the ruling class to rape, and capitalism will fall without a doubt.

[h9socialist]

Here's something else to keep in mind: just because capitalism collapses does not mean socialism has arrived. It could leave a frightened upper class pursuing the worst despotism. Socialism has to be built, it doesn't just start.

[NecroCommie]

To OP: Tonight... (locks and loads) :cool:

[Искра]

Yes, "of course".
And people think of anarchists as hippies who believe in Utopia. :rolleyes:

[Pogue]

Don't worry I have a date planned, I'll let you know in advance so you can prepare.

[Luisrah]

In 43 minutes

There is no way you can tell, can somebody on here read the future? Stupid thread IMO

Brilliant post.

A guy comes here asking for opinions. People educatedly give them.
You have to be rude.

This is the learning forum ''A place for beginners and learners to ask their political questions about theory or specific issues. Don't worry if you think your questions are stupid or pointless, ask away. Learning is not stupid and is never pointless.''


And people think of anarchists as hippies who believe in Utopia. :rolleyes:Well, eventhough in your opinion it may be impossible for what he is thinking to become true, you have to realise that he is thinking about a real possibility. He isn't dreaming, he's thinking about a feasible revolution.

Plus, -> :rolleyes:

[Drace]

My guess is April 30, 2034

This is more of a gamble then anything

[New Tet]

Hello, according to some economists, the US economy and the US dollar will collapse in the year 2025. And according to sociologist Immanuel Wallerstein capitalism might fall in about 10 to 30 years from today. So i would like for you guys to predict when do you think that we will see an objective revolutionary situation in the USA and the rise of the dictatorship of the proletariat (workers-state), in rich big countries like USA, Germany, UK, and in poorer countries as well like Africa, Middle East, Asia, Latin America, etc.
LeninistKing

Have you taken the full measure of working class consciousness in your community? What forms do the class struggle take where you live?

How much of that struggle can be used by the community to advance the cause of real emancipation from the wages system?

How much must one's community be organized in order to make socialism a reality?

How about our other community, the one where we spend a great deal of useful time; our workplaces? How must we organize our workplaces and to what end?

2025-30? Who knows? If the last eight were a virtual roller coaster, I imagine the next 25 will seem to many, including myself, as the Apocalypse (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apocalypse).

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1b26BD5KjH0

[bcbm]

I think it would be the other way, that all of a sudden a industrial nation has a revolution and makes all the revolutions in third-world countries look insignificant in comparison as the industrial nation(s) would have the means to actually implement socialism.

this statement comes off as kind of chauvinistic to me...

[Manifesto]

April, 2041 because it would take at least 20 years for Socialism to not be taboo anymore.

[Psy]

this statement comes off as kind of chauvinistic to me...
Industrial nations have industrial might (duh), meaning industrial nations can actually produce abundance rather then simply spreading around scarcity around more equally like less industrialized nations. When you have a worker's revolution fueled by over-production and saturated markets then even the slowest worker will start to understand what Marx was talking about especially if the revolutionary body combats capitalists by producing even more and saturating markets even more.

[bcbm]

i was referring more to the part about making third world countries revolutions look insignificant, as though the life and death struggles of the exploited in the third world won't be inspiring or important once we have a revolution somewhere in the west?

[Psy]

i was referring more to the part about making third world countries revolutions look insignificant, as though the life and death struggles of the exploited in the third world won't be inspiring or important once we have a revolution somewhere in the west?

The struggles of the third world would become overshadowed by the victory of workers in a industrialized nation. The entire world society would be thrown into the air as the entire world proletariat would suddenly find itself locking horns with the world bourgeoisie that would cause the struggles in the third world to the orbits of the two major forces (the revolutionaries and reactionaries) as centuries of class struggles reaches its climax. This would mean the battles for the major industrial centers would become the focus of the world revolution with 3rd world struggles being simply struggles on the periphery as at that point it their outcome would be dependent on who wins the industrial centers in the world wide class war.

[Искра]

Well, eventhough in your opinion it may be impossible for what he is thinking to become true, you have to realise that he is thinking about a real possibility. He isn't dreaming, he's thinking about a feasible revolution.

Plus, -> :rolleyes:
I don't want to start the tendency war or something else, but my comment is not about feasibility. It about he talking about a revolution which is not a revolution but coup d'etat by some Naxalites or what so ever.

But since you mentioned feasibility isn't it kind of utopian to write stuff like whole third world we have a socialism soon etc. That's not talking about real possibility that's like I say when I woke up tomorrow we will live in communism.

What's wrong with :rolleyes:

[ArrowLance]

Lets set an arbitrary date of the rise of Communism. Then we can stop working and just wait for the deadline.

[red cat]

I don't want to start the tendency war or something else, but my comment is not about feasibility. It about he talking about a revolution which is not a revolution but coup d'etat by some Naxalites or what so ever.

But since you mentioned feasibility isn't it kind of utopian to write stuff like whole third world we have a socialism soon etc. That's not talking about real possibility that's like I say when I woke up tomorrow we will live in communism.

What's wrong with :rolleyes:Only a few hundred-millions. :D

[Tatarin]

Personally, I believe that a revolution will happen because the lives of ordinary men and women will sooner or later become so bad that they simply will revolt.

In any case, I'm unsure how one would go about "the beginning". I mean, when did capitalism start? After the French or the American revolution?

But as the world looks now, I'm guessing we don't have much long to wait. Venezuela, Nepal and India - if not Peru - may just be the early seeds of the future. Time will tell. :)

[Stranger Than Paradise]

We can not mathematically predict when world revolution will occur. Class consciousness doesn't develop along a linear path. Therefore there is no way of telling. We can tell from the low levels of class consciousness that it won't happen today or tomorrow, but no one can predict what will change this and when it will change.

[Psy]

We can not mathematically predict when world revolution will occur. Class consciousness doesn't develop along a linear path. Therefore there is no way of telling. We can tell from the low levels of class consciousness that it won't happen today or tomorrow, but no one can predict what will change this and when it will change.

I wouldn't say the proletariat lack class conscious. If you talk to the average industrial workers in the USA they will agree with you that capitalists are stealing their labor the stumbling block is most don't think the situation can change at least not yet so most are apathetic to their own plight.

[Stranger Than Paradise]

I wouldn't say the proletariat lack class conscious. If you talk to the average industrial workers in the USA they will agree with you that capitalists are stealing their labor the stumbling block is most don't think the situation can change at least not yet so most are apathetic to their own plight.

Well isn't that a part of class consciousness itself?

[ZeroNowhere]

A guy comes here asking for opinions. People educatedly give them.They are polling, not learning. There is nothing to learn here, it's simply asking for people to make predictions.

[Revy]

Yop62wQH498

[Psy]

Well isn't that a part of class consciousness itself?

It means they are aware of their class role within capitalism (to varying degrees) but unaware of the class power of the working class has over the capitalist class. What this means is the American class is really a powder keg waiting for a revolutionary event to show American working class that the capitalist class is not as omnipotent as capitalist propaganda claims, that behind all the might of the capitalist state is the fact that ruling class is a minority that requires the labor of the proletariat to maintain their power of the proletariat.

[red cat]

I think it would be the other way, that all of a sudden a industrial nation has a revolution and makes all the revolutions in third-world countries look insignificant in comparison as the industrial nation(s) would have the means to actually implement socialism.This won't happen until the first(or second)-world proletariat can defeat the labour aristocracy. For that, I think that revolutions in the third-world are necessary.

[LeninistKing]

Indeed, how the oppressed bolivians and oppressed venezuelans are a lot smarter, more read, and less apathetic than the oppressed poor people of USA? So i really think its the other way, i think that the oppressed poor countries will lead the way toward socialism.

Besides i have noticed that USA has many weird ideologies out there, like far-right wing libertarianism, occultist conspiracy theory movements, etc. As opposed to other countries where the population is not so bombarded with so many weird ideologies and weird anti-scientific world views like we have here in America.

.



this statement comes off as kind of chauvinistic to me...

[Psy]

Indeed, how the oppressed bolivians and oppressed venezuelans are a lot smarter, more read, and less apathetic than the oppressed poor people of USA? So i really think its the other way, i think that the oppressed poor countries will lead the way toward socialism.

Are they? The workers of poor countries understand their collective power but lack a understanding of their class role within capitalism (so basically the opposite problem in the industrialized world) this is why even when workers in Buenos Aires won against the capitalist class they gave power back to capitalist class as they didn't understand their class relationship to the capitalist class, they had the delusion that that the bourgeois state was autonomous to the capitalist class thus why they went to the courts to get the law to give them the means of production while most industrial American workers only obey the law as they fear the state. I just don't see American workers simply handing power back to the capitalist class if they ever got as far as their Latin American comrades as the battle for Blair Mountain in 1921 showed American workers are willing to engage in armed struggle once they there is a strong workers movement, so an American workers revolution would probably be as violent against the capitalist class as the French revolution was to the aristocracy.



Besides i have noticed that USA has many weird ideologies out there, like far-right wing libertarianism, occultist conspiracy theory movements, etc. As opposed to other countries where the population is not so bombarded with so many weird ideologies and weird anti-scientific world views like we have here in America.

That are backed by the capititalist class they really have little influence over the American proletrait.

[Sam_b]

When the working class are in a position to overthrow the current system.

[ckaihatsu]

In any case, I'm unsure how one would go about "the beginning". I mean, when did capitalism start? After the French or the American revolution?


This is *always* an *excellent* topic to raise, in *any* discussion of history(!)

We know, from Trotsky, that capitalism brings about mixed and uneven development -- this means that at any given moment there are *several* modes of production all operating at once, from live-on-the-farmland chattel slavery conditions, to feudal-like indentured servitude (debt peonage), through to more-independent workers -- the typical "free laborers" -- and even including "future" ones, like the lifestyles of those who are freed from work and can live within certain boundaries of self-selected lives.

In this sense, the *humanities* revolution -- roughly corresponding to the Renaissance and Enlightenment -- was the *beginning* of it all, with common people finding validity in living their lives as their own.





Personally, I believe that a revolution will happen because the lives of ordinary men and women will sooner or later become so bad that they simply will revolt.


If we set aside the "well-defined-eras" conception of history and instead look at the several centuries of the modern age (post-feudal / proto-urban / c. 1100-present), we'll see that, in terms of *individual liberation*, there are many currents that flow near each other, but remain separate and distinguishable, which may also foretell of *future* developments.

Certainly there are moments, like the French and American Revolutions, when things come to a head for the larger society, and the political and economic *foundations* of the society suddenly rumble and shift like an earthquake. But at the same time I think we should examine how the more-privileged layers of *any* given period are living to see what might become more democratized and commonplace in the *next* period.

Perhaps it's not even so much that the "middle class" has to *suffer* so much as it is simply that the old ways of doing things just don't work anymore, for practically *everyone*, and so they fall out of favor and use, like horse-drawn buggies or tending to one's own farm. Do people *still* use horse-drawn buggies and tend to family farms? Sure, but the lives of ordinary men and women have since moved on and "revolted" against this lifestyle.

We could call this an "Industrial Revolution", or we could note that, from the ground, it just kind of *happened*. Perhaps this is how capitalism will meet its fate as well, with a sort of "what the hell was that" kind of feeling about a decade or so after it actually passed.





But as the world looks now, I'm guessing we don't have much long to wait. Venezuela, Nepal and India - if not Peru - may just be the early seeds of the future. Time will tell. :)


I don't mean to focus *too* much on lifestyles, but I think it's *legitimate* to look at how people are *actually living their lives* to see what the "results" are of any given economic-political period -- *are* more people getting by with less work, even in rural areas? Has digitization brought about a different, accessible kind of net-enabled lifestyle for many, even poorer folk?

Is the debt-encumbered First World gradually giving way to a neo-industrialization in the recently backward parts of the world? I think we need to be receptive to the "leapfrogging" dynamic here, and not just look for textbook definitions of what a 'revolution' is.

Cities in Northern Europe were formed when land productivity achieved a sudden spurt that allowed people to keep a certain surplus of their harvest for themselves -- this put them into economic circles with travelling merchants and enabled their flight from serfdom to newly developing cities. Was this a torches-and-pitchforks kind of revolution that fits right into the storyline of a major Hollywood production? No, but it was a revolution nonetheless, with accompanying political developments in the superstructure -- like the French Revolution and, later, the Paris Commune.


Chris




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[el_chavista]

- As seen on TV-

Chávez announced a socialist society for Venezuela by the year 2019. By that date "we will have even the social property of the means of production" he stated in his speech to the PSUV extraordinary foundational Congress last Saturday (Nov, 21).

[Ben Seattle]

As far as the question which kicked off this thread, I wrote an article on this topic as follows:
A scenario for the overthrow of bourgeois rule in the U.S. in the middle of the 21st century
(http, etc) struggle.net/ALDS/part_03_content.htm

[Dimentio]

Hello, according to some economists, the US economy and the US dollar will collapse in the year 2025. And according to sociologist Immanuel Wallerstein capitalism might fall in about 10 to 30 years from today. So i would like for you guys to predict when do you think that we will see an objective revolutionary situation in the USA and the rise of the dictatorship of the proletariat (workers-state), in rich big countries like USA, Germany, UK, and in poorer countries as well like Africa, Middle East, Asia, Latin America, etc.

LeninistKing

I think that capitalism will collapse around 2050 to 2070 due to a global biosustainability crisis. But most likely, it won't be replaced by socialism as it looks now, but rather by some form of warlord neo-feudal system built on mafia-like protection and armed gangs.

[Dimentio]

- As seen on TV-

Chávez announced a socialist society for Venezuela by the year 2019. By that date "we will have even the social property of the means of production" he stated in his speech to the PSUV extraordinary foundational Congress last Saturday (Nov, 21).






Interesting. Is there any details on how Venezuelan socialism will work? I have gotten the impression that the Bolivarian revolution largely is standing still right now, with the government subsidising imports.

[LeninistKing]

Hey my friend, i think that all the leftists in this world should support the Venezuelan Revolution, if an 100% socialist system could be materialized in Venezuela. That would be one of the best progress for human kind. And i hope that the wave of socialist ideology becomes mainstream ideology soon.







- As seen on TV-



Chávez announced a socialist society for Venezuela by the year 2019. By that date "we will have even the social property of the means of production" he stated in his speech to the PSUV extraordinary foundational Congress last Saturday (Nov, 21).

[LeninistKing]

Ben: Thanx for the article, i will share it to my friends



As far as the question which kicked off this thread, I wrote an article on this topic as follows:
A scenario for the overthrow of bourgeois rule in the U.S. in the middle of the 21st century
(http, etc) struggle.net/ALDS/part_03_content.htm