Has the US recession ended?

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The US economy grew between July and September. Is this good news for the world's economy?

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[chegitz guevara]

Technically, the recession is over, as a recession is defined as two or more quarters of negative growth. Unemployment, however, will continue to rise for at least another two quarters, and is not expected to recover for a number of years.

[Pirate turtle the 11th]

Not in the uk.

[The Author]

They may officially say the recession is over, but I sincerely doubt it. In fact, I can't stand it when they refer to this crisis merely as a "recession" to downplay it- it's a depression. I've seen stores and businesses go bankrupt and head into oblivion over the past two years locally, statewide, and nationally, and the news of job cuts, layoffs, reductions in pay and workforce on a daily basis tell me that this crisis is definitely not over, here in the U.S., or in other parts of the world. I don't see how the US economy "grew" between July and September- it sounds like statistical number fudging which is typical of the manipulative attitudes of an economist. The raising of prices, reduction in provision of public services, budget cuts, raising taxes, spending yet another year in Iraq and Afghanistan while our own country is in dire need of funds for social welfare and infrastructure building, and the empty talk of the Obama Administration which has not changed one thing in the near year since being elected to office shows me we're still in a crisis.

[Psy]

Technically, the recession is over, as a recession is defined as two or more quarters of negative growth. Unemployment, however, will continue to rise for at least another two quarters, and is not expected to recover for a number of years.
Yes but it is only speculation that is powering the 'recovery', production of commodities is still sliding as there is still over production and a growing number of unsold commodities on the market. There is a looming shadow of aging means of production that can really kick the capitalist markets in the ass as it means eventually capitalists will no longer be able to live off the fixed capital of the long boom and new machinery would needed to be produced but the rate of profit is too low to replace. For example close to all of the infrastructure in the USA was build during the long boom or earlier.

[Dimentio]

This is probably not the end, but its likely that it is the beginning of the capitalist economy as we know it. It is very likely that we will experience sinking life standards in the first world and slower growth rates as India and China are rising on the imperialist sky.

[TheCultofAbeLincoln]

In a sense, yes, the worst of the storm has been weathered. At least, as far as the stock market goes. The housing market is going to be dismal for a long time (or great, if you're a buyer) and it's never going to be so easy to get a loan as it was before the crash.

I've got a feeling that something is going to break though.

[Psy]

In a sense, yes, the worst of the storm has been weathered. At least, as far as the stock market goes. The housing market is going to be dismal for a long time (or great, if you're a buyer) and it's never going to be so easy to get a loan as it was before the crash.

I've got a feeling that something is going to break though.

Well as I said we haven't seen any recovery in commodities, there is still over production with unsold commodities on the market. So while the market is not crashing anymore it is not recovering either it is just stalled with no realistic possibility for growth but capitalists speculating on growth that will not materialize within a reasonable amount of time.

[chegitz guevara]

Well, the economy (as defined by the GDP--a problematic measure to be sure) grew at an annualized 3.5% in those three months. I know in the last month, I've had more job opportunities (almost 30) present themselves in October than I've had in the previous 15 months (I've had four weeks of work since June '08--this last month, and I was laid off again last week--fuckers).

The question really isn't, has the recession ended. It has. The questions should be, what will the recovery look like, when will the next crisis occur, and how bad will it be? I think the outlook on all of these questions is gloomy.

[Comrade Anarchist]

The economy for the rich is getting better but the poor are still losing their jobs and being forced to for slave wages.

[pierrotlefou]

They may officially say the recession is over, but I sincerely doubt it. In fact, I can't stand it when they refer to this crisis merely as a "recession" to downplay it- it's a depression. I've seen stores and businesses go bankrupt and head into oblivion over the past two years locally, statewide, and nationally, and the news of job cuts, layoffs, reductions in pay and workforce on a daily basis tell me that this crisis is definitely not over, here in the U.S., or in other parts of the world. I don't see how the US economy "grew" between July and September- it sounds like statistical number fudging which is typical of the manipulative attitudes of an economist. The raising of prices, reduction in provision of public services, budget cuts, raising taxes, spending yet another year in Iraq and Afghanistan while our own country is in dire need of funds for social welfare and infrastructure building, and the empty talk of the Obama Administration which has not changed one thing in the near year since being elected to office shows me we're still in a crisis. The upper crust did better between july and september so by that logic, yes, the economy is doing a little better.But, Recession is a technical term that is meaningless to the rest of us. Capitalism will always keep the poor and working class in a type of "recession".

[chegitz guevara]

That sort of thinking is not helpful, since we do go through periods when the workers do quite well, such as the late 90s. People remember the good times, and their personal experience will contradict what you are saying.

[fidzboi]

This week people have been reporting that the 'recession' is not going to be deep but long lasting, a year ago I heard the exact opposite. The frailties of bourgeoisie economics aside, predictions regarding the future of an economy are fraught with problems. Inevitably, this means we can do little more than observe existing relations with the purpose of giving our hypothesise solid grounding; and that means in order to gauge this 'recession' and how it will play out, we must identify the underlying economic problems and then see how or if they've been resolved.

The major problems exemplified/highlighted by the 'banking crisis' of 08/09 are:
The overall relationship we have with 'credit' - the prosperity of the 90's was bought on a credit card, and now mortgages, savings, loans, etc., etc., all seem problem areas, and without significant credit we cannot sustain our standard of living.
The nature of western economies - a whole lot of commodity production has been 'outsourced', imo primarily to blunt the powerful labour unions that had established themselves in many sectors, making much of the western work forces jobs now reliant on consumption. A shop exists to sell something, whilst a mine exists to produce coal. This lack of commodity production, imo, will make economic recovery much harder.
State employment - tied to the last point, many people now work for the enlarged welfare state, yet in Britain anyway, the major cuts on public spending are yet to happen, and won't happen until after the next general election. How will that effect economic recovery?
The ageing of the population and the deficit in pensions - an obviously serious economic problem.
And finally, the possible emergence of new superpowers - India and China in particular, could well present themselves as serious imperial contenders in this century, breaking western hegemony over the world. The economic complications for the western states, are again obvious.


They seem some of the 'biggies', to me anyway, though I'm sure there are many more. What seems likely to me is that this is the beginning, and in a few years people of my generation who grew up in the 90's, will be speaking of them as a 'golden age'; similar in ways to how the 50's are viewed in America. For most of us, I think we can expect a bad few decades (:mad:!!!) because the problems listed above, to me, seem insurmountable. Though it remains to be seen whether that is true, and whether capital can produce an 'answer'.

[KC]

The overall relationship we have with 'credit' - the prosperity of the 90's was bought on a credit card, and now mortgages, savings, loans, etc., etc., all seem problem areas, and without significant credit we cannot

sustain our standard of living.

Actually the economic crisis was only started by the waves of consumer credit issues that transpired (including of course mortgages). The real reason why the economic crisis was so sever was because industry was unable to receive credit from banks due to the banks freezing up credit lines. So it is more accurate in my opinion to say that the problem is the relationship between finance and industrial capital.

[Psy]

[/LIST]
Actually the economic crisis was only started by the waves of consumer credit issues that transpired (including of course mortgages). The real reason why the economic crisis was so sever was because industry was unable to receive credit from banks due to the banks freezing up credit lines. So it is more accurate in my opinion to say that the problem is the relationship between finance and industrial capital.

But banks moved away from industrial capital because of the falling rate of profit, industrial capital has never solved the stagnation of the 1970's even with outsourcing, this is why most fixed capital was made during the long boom, even the infrastructure of the Internet is mostly fixed capital from the late 70's this is why telecoms are against common carrier as with their antiquated fixed capital their only hope to deal with growing demand is to charge suppliers of Internet content more for priority over their aging networks. If you ever been to a telephone central office in a major US city you'd be shocked at how ridiculously they patch out dated technology to work with modern technology simply because they don't want to replace their obsolete fixed capital.

The fact industrial capitalists were running their fixed capital into the ground before the crisis I really don't see industry doing anything in this crisis but continue to stagnate like they have been doing for decades.

[Uncle Ho]

Who cares? The Economy in the US and Europe is measured by the ease at which Vampire Capital can suck the blood of the worker, so we lose regardless of any improved statistics.

[Jimmie Higgins]

That sort of thinking is not helpful, since we do go through periods when the workers do quite well, such as the late 90s. People remember the good times, and their personal experience will contradict what you are saying.In general I think what you've said is right on. However, I really think that if you want to look at the last time workers actually did well you'd have to go back to before the recessions in the 1970s.

Some people made out ok in the 90s but it was a mirage. They did well if they got stock options but this was usually an alternative to increases in health and other benefits; if it was a two person household with two wage earners; by working overtime or a second job; or if people traded their home equity for loans.

Because of the events of the last year it is much easier to make the case that the mega-profits of the 90s did not lift all boats since most of the ways that working Americans were able to maintain a post-war level of comfort have been destroyed with this last recession (other than the entry of women into the workforce adding a second income for many working families).

I agree it would be wrong to say that capitalism never grants reforms or grants wage increases or whatnot (particularly when pressed) but as someone whose parents were laid-off in the 90s, I think it is important to show how the "good times" for workers in the 90s was actually on the back of a massive increase in inequity, wage stagnation, and the destruction of the social safety net (which again, the effects of this is more clear due to the current economic crisis).

[KarlMarx1989]

It never started! If middle class families could still buy brand new cars and appliances and such, I don't think that it is a recession. I know families that are lower class that can afford cable and internet. That's in the last 5 years. So, no...just no. No recession ever existed in the US.

[GPDP]

It never started! If middle class families could still buy brand new cars and appliances and such, I don't think that it is a recession. I know families that are lower class that can afford cable and internet. That's in the last 5 years. So, no...just no. No recession ever existed in the US.

Do you even know what a recession is?

[KarlMarx1989]

Do you even know what a recession is?
Why, sure I do; but do any of you honestly think it was / is that bad?

[Jimmie Higgins]

It never started! If middle class families could still buy brand new cars and appliances and such, I don't think that it is a recession. I know families that are lower class that can afford cable and internet. That's in the last 5 years. So, no...just no. No recession ever existed in the US.

Oh yeah. Well I make poverty wages and yes, I split the internet and phone bills so I guess that makes up for tens of thousands of dollars of debt due to my girlfriend's trip to the emergency room and college loans:rolleyes:.

I guess having a TV and a bike also make up for not having health or dental. Hell if I wanted to I could save up and buy some grills to dazzle you with my smile and match my stunners - but it doesn't change the fact that I and millions of other working people generally live paycheck to paycheck and if we are laid off because of recession in bad times or corporate mergers in good times we can't make rent or mortgage payments.

What other folks said here is true: the economic recession as a quarterly measurement of the capitalist economy is over for now in the US. Meanwhile the suffering that workers feel due to and associated with the recession (unemployment, cuts in wages) as well as the larger world-wide economic crisis continues.

[Il Medico]

Is the Recession over?
For Wall Street.

[KarlMarx1989]

I and millions of other working people generally live paycheck to paycheck and if we are laid off because of recession in bad times or corporate mergers in good times we can't make rent or mortgage payments.
All that shit has been happening since the 1980's. The only reason that the economy would be so bad is because people have been panicking about the stocks going down a little more than usual and they lock their money away in banks. The fact is, spending money makes the economy better. Not credit cards or Debt. cards; but money. Since people are fearing the worst, they hold on to their money as hard as they can, keeping it way from people who would like to spend it, causing the government to keep making more.

I think that the worker problem is getting worse. It's the greed. The corporations want to make a lot profit, not make a little bit extra or [heaven forbid] "break even." So they do whatever they can to make as much as they can for the company...and that is exactly what is showing on the DOW. The cuts the company made made them more money, but really they aren't producing as much, at all.


the suffering that workers feel due to and associated with the recession (unemployment, cuts in wages) as well as the larger world-wide economic crisis continues.
This has been getting worse for years because of the reasons I listed /\. The rest is as I listed. /\

[Psy]

I think we should remember the 1929 stock market crash did see a couple short recoveries followed by further falls and even though there was a steady recovery in the beginning of 1930 by middle of 1930 the market had entered a steady fall. The lesson of the 1929 crash is don't look at stock markets that are just fictional capital, look at the real economy, look at the capitalist mode of production of M-C-C1-M1 only then will you understand the health of the economy.

Yes there has a spike in consumption yet that is pretty much as backed by government spending that is temporary.

[chegitz guevara]

Why, sure I do; but do any of you honestly think it was / is that bad?


Given that tens of thousands of people in the United States died in numbers above normal suggests that the recession was really very bad for some people. The main unemployment rate (U-3) in the United States is pushing 10%. If we look at U-6 instead (which includes discouraged and marginally attached workers), unemployment and underemployment affect one in six workers. In Florida, that number is almost 20%, and in Michigan, it's almost one in four workers.

Keep in mind that during the Great Depression, the majority still had work and could still buy whatever they wanted. My grandmother's family did very well during those years, and could afford, simply on a farmer and shop keeper's income, to have employees, send three of four kids to college, and extend credit to those who were being hurt by the depression (basically letting families eat for free for years).

And, I've only worked one month out of the last 16, so . . .

So yes, I think it is that bad.

[Das war einmal]

There is no need to be optimistic. The recession is far from over and these new positive statistics on Wall Street dont mean anything. Production has been decreased and the unemployment rate has increased. So what are those positive stats based on? Nothing more than false confidence.

The real recession shall kick in sooner or later

[chegitz guevara]

A recession is defined as two quarters of negative growth. If you have positive growth in a quarter, then the recession is over. As I recall, production is up about .1%. Historically, unemployment continues to grow for at least six months following the end of a recession.

If you just make things up or refuse to use the definitions that most people have, they will not take you seriously. Instead of denying the end of the recession, use the end of the recession as a weapon against capitalism. Use it to point out, not that it's just capitalist lying, but that their system doesn't work for us. They're getting better and we're still hurting. Not, they're lying. Most people will trust the media before they trust you, and we are trying to win over most people.

[Psy]

A recession is defined as two quarters of negative growth. If you have positive growth in a quarter, then the recession is over. As I recall, production is up about .1%. Historically, unemployment continues to grow for at least six months following the end of a recession.

Production fueled by temporary infusion of government subsidies meaning odds are we are just looking a spike and growth will continue to fall.



If you just make things up or refuse to use the definitions that most people have, they will not take you seriously. Instead of denying the end of the recession, use the end of the recession as a weapon against capitalism. Use it to point out, not that it's just capitalist lying, but that their system doesn't work for us. They're getting better and we're still hurting. Not, they're lying. Most people will trust the media before they trust you, and we are trying to win over most people.

But even some bourgeois economists are skeptical that the recession is over.

[Das war einmal]

If you view the recession as a complete technical term than yes the recession is over, but I was actually meaning the entire crisis which is far from over and in fact will only worsen in a short time

[chegitz guevara]

Production fueled by temporary infusion of government subsidies meaning odds are we are just looking a spike and growth will continue to fall.

But even some bourgeois economists are skeptical that the recession is over.

We are scientific socialists, not pull stuff out of our ass socialists. That means, we work with the data we have, not the data we wish we had or the data we think is true but cannot prove.

[Psy]

We are scientific socialists, not pull stuff out of our ass socialists. That means, we work with the data we have, not the data we wish we had or the data we think is true but cannot prove.

The data we have is inconclusive, even if production and consumption is up we don't have enough data to tell if this is a upward trend or not. Remember we have yet to enter the critical holiday season were we will really see the trend of consumption since the holiday season is where stores make most of their sales for the year.

[piet11111]

even during the great depression the market showed some recovery's only to crash further down the drain.

currently this recovery is just big capitalists going bargain hunting after they had their fill the market will crash further.

[Sean]

While wall street might be getting fat again, the unemployment situation is still fucked and benefits/assistance is about to run out for around a million people. So, while it looks good on paper, no the recession hasn't ended in practical terms, businesses are still folding and downsizing all over the show at least in the midwest.

[RadioRaheem84]

Has the recession ended? Yeah, for the banks, not the people.

The recovery is an L shaped one. A jobless one.

[ckaihatsu]

http://www.wsws.org/articles/2009/oct2009/usec-o30.shtml


US: GDP figure masks deepening economic crisis


By Barry Grey
30 October 2009

The Commerce Department on Thursday reported that the US gross domestic product (GDP) grew 3.5 percent on an annualized basis in the third quarter (July through September), breaking a string of four consecutive quarters of negative growth.

President Barack Obama hailed the report as “welcome news” and “an affirmation that the recession is abating and the steps we’ve taken have made a difference.” Wall Street rallied on the report. The Dow gained 200 points, reversing a week of losses and nearing the 10,000 mark once again.

The reported increase in the growth rate topped most forecasts. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had forecast 3.2 percent GDP growth for the quarter.

Many media outlets and economists were quick to declare that the GDP rise meant the recession which officially began in December of 2007 was over.

However, as a number of analysts pointed out, the scale of the increase provided a distorted picture of the real state of the economy, which remains dominated by rising unemployment, falling wages and near-record low rates of factory usage.

Nearly 63 percent (2.2 percent) of the 3.5 percent increase in GDP was due to temporary government tax credits to consumers that have either expired or are set to expire next month. Federal outlays added another 0.6 percent to growth.

More generally, the GDP rise was the inevitable result of an unprecedented funneling of public funds into the financial system, totaling at least $11 trillion to date, according to most estimates. This diversion of resources to the financial elite has resulted in vast and unsustainable budget deficits and precipitated a sharp decline of the dollar on world currency markets, undermining the status of the US currency as the world reserve and trading currency. The outcome is a short-term boost in growth—one that is still insufficient to bring down the jobless rate—which paves the way for even greater financial and economic convulsions in the coming months.

The temporary spurt in economic growth has been carried out at the expense of the working class. Corporate profits have rebounded, but almost entirely on the basis of deep and widespread job cuts and reductions in wages and hours of work for those able to hold onto their jobs. Profits at some of the major Wall Street banks that received tens of billions of dollars in government cash as well as many billions more in cheap loans, debt guarantees and other subsidies have also surged. The big banks are leveraging their government handouts to return to the speculative practices that precipitated last year’s financial crash, while awarding their executives and traders record bonuses and pay packages.

A vast redistribution of wealth from the bottom to the top, combined with intensified exploitation of the work force, has helped fuel an upsurge on the stock market. The S&P 500 stock index has risen by 60 percent since its low point last March.

The GDP figure reflects, in short, a fragile recovery for the ruling elite based on growing economic distress and social misery for working people.

Fully 1.7 percentage points, or nearly half, of the 3.5 percent growth figure came from motor vehicle output—the result of last summer’s “cash for clunkers” subsidy to car buyers, which expired at the end of August. That spurt in auto production was reversed in September, which saw a 35 percent decline in vehicle sales.

The government’s $8,000 credit for first-time home buyers produced a 23.4 percent jump in homebuilding, which boosted GDP for the quarter by another 0.5 percent. This program is set to expire on November 30, raising fears of another plunge in home sales and prices.

[...]

[GatesofLenin]

Got news for you, we were never in a recession. The economic system just burped because of a few rotten tomatoes = thiefs. A few got greedy and the rest pay for it. I got some good verifiable data from my own country, Canada, that we're due for some serious tough times shortly. The politicians in Ottawa are telling us we're "officially $120 billion in the red" but that's a mammoth lie. The true number is around 5x to 8x that amount. For you Canadians here that grew up in the early 90's, remember the worthless Canadian dollar, well get ready for it again. US/CAD exchange rate of 1.60 coming up. I also got good info that over 70% of Canadians are borrowing from their credit cards every pay week because they're not making enough to survive. Record low rates now will balloon up and those debts will have to be paid eventually. Glad I don't have no credit cards.