Depopulating Russia

[Bud Struggle]

Seems like the Russians are missing the "good old days" of the USSR.

http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/2009%20-%20Spring/full-Eberstadt.html

Aspecter is haunting Russia today. It is not the specter of Communism—that ghost has been chained in the attic of the past—but rather of depopulation—a relentless, unremitting, and perhaps unstoppable depopulation. The mass deaths associated with the Communist era may be history, but another sort of mass death may have only just begun, as Russians practice what amounts to an ethnic self-cleansing.

Since 1992, Russia’s human numbers have been progressively dwindling. This slow motion process now taking place in the country carries with it grim and potentially disastrous implications that threaten to recast the contours of life and society in Russia, to diminish the prospects for Russian economic development, and to affect Russia’s potential influence on the world stage in the years ahead....

[TheCultofAbeLincoln]

Eh I've heard it doesn't have so much to do with Soviet brutality, though that may have played a part, as opposed to the losses sustained in the "great patriotic war" that Russia has never recovered from.

But yeah, Japan will have more people than all of Russia in a few decades if current trends continue.

[Die Neue Zeit]

I thought it had more to do with the vodka culture combined with the welfare state introduced by Khrushchev, since the Russian ethnicity grew slower under him.

On a broader note, I watched something on the news yesterday about the world population topping 8 billion in a few decades, with increased demand for food, water, and energy. A global welfare state would definitely slow population growth like what has happened in Europe.

EDIT: Such welfare state should focus on the Third World where, as noted by posters below, populations are exploding.

[GracchusBabeuf]

This just shows how free markets have failed to reach even Stalinist standards of living. There must be some dreadfully wrong with capitalism to make Russians pine for Stalinist dictatorship as the lesser of the two evils.

[manic expression]

I thought it had more to do with the vodka culture combined with the welfare state introduced by Khrushchev, since the Russian ethnicity grew slower under him.

On a broader note, I watched something on the news yesterday about the world population topping 8 billion in a few decades, with increased demand for food, water, and energy. A global welfare state would definitely slow population growth like in Europe.

Europe is the last place we need to worry about in terms of population growth, most western European countries have reasonable rates of growth and many of them have negative growth. Developing nations are definitely where population growth needs to be better controlled (thanks a lot Pope "no-condoms" Ratzinger!).

On Russia itself, I've heard about this trend and it's truly a shame, I hope it can be reversed soon.

Oh, and from what I've heard, alchoholism is reaching insane levels in Russia right now. Honestly, the tragedy that's befallen that country since 1991 is enough to make you sick.

[TheCultofAbeLincoln]

I thought it had more to do with the vodka culture combined with the welfare state introduced by Khrushchev, since the Russian ethnicity grew slower under him.

On a broader note, I watched something on the news yesterday about the world population topping 8 billion in a few decades, with increased demand for food, water, and energy. A global welfare state would definitely slow population growth like in Europe.

That's a very good point, I hadn't thought of that.

It's pretty evident that the third world contributes most to the population boom, as children are an asset for them as opposed to a burden they sometimes (unfortunately) are in the more developed world (note, I don't blame the poor for this phenomenon).

I would add that some welfare reforms can spur population growth, however. In Quebec, they tried many reforms to increase growth and the one that finally seems to have worked was subsidizing child daycare. That is one reform I definitely feel we should implement here in the US, at the least for lower-class single moms who have a real hard time with the ever increasing costs.

[TheCultofAbeLincoln]

Europe is the last place we need to worry about in terms of population growth, most western European countries have reasonable rates of growth and many of them have negative growth. Developing nations are definitely where population growth needs to be better controlled (thanks a lot Pope "no-condoms" Ratzinger!).

I believe he meant

We should increase welfare so that population growth can be stemmed, like has happened in Europe.

[hugsandmarxism]

I thought it had more to do with the vodka culture combined with the welfare state introduced by Khrushchev, since the Russian ethnicity grew slower under him.

http://www.sovmusic.ru/jpg/posters/ussr0001.jpg (javascript:history.back())

(Alcohol - The Enemy of Production)

This seems to be, more or less, symptomatic of what's happened to the former Soviet bloc countries under capitalism. Overall standard of living is down, homelessness is up, drug use and alcoholism is up, prostitution is up, and people are miserable. Now, rather than tell the story about my professor who taught in Soviet Armenia, I'll just provide a link to that post (http://www.revleft.com/vb/showpost.php?p=1398582&postcount=210) This is indeed unfortunate.

[manic expression]

This just shows how free markets have failed to reach even Stalinist standards of living. There must be some dreadfully wrong with capitalism to make Russians pine for Stalinist dictatorship as the lesser of the two evils.

I should let this go, but I feel like I should say something. Have we learned nothing about the consequences of needlessly mentioning Stalin? I'm not even sure what "Stalinist standards of living" is even supposed to mean.


I believe he meant

We should increase welfare so that population growth can be stemmed, like has happened in Europe.

(on edit) Yes, TheCultofAbeLincoln, you're definitely right on that. Serves me right for reading too quickly.

[Die Neue Zeit]

It's pretty evident that the third world contributes most to the population boom, as children are an asset for them as opposed to a burden they sometimes (unfortunately) are in the more developed world (note, I don't blame the poor for this phenomenon).

I would add that some welfare reforms can spur population growth, however. In Quebec, they tried many reforms to increase growth and the one that finally seems to have worked was subsidizing child daycare. That is one reform I definitely feel we should implement here in the US, at the least for lower-class single moms who have a real hard time with the ever increasing costs.

If I'm correct, the excessively rapid implementation of a welfare state would immediately choke off population growth and even lead to decline. In the Russian scenario, I dare to venture that, even without the alcoholism, there would be continuous slight decline in families taking care of younger "liabilities"/"burdens."

Take, for example, the mixed Chinese scenario, combining a one-child policy with the elimination of universal health care. Now I think the Chinese might be considering the restoration of the latter, considering that there's still population growth and more Chinese are moving abroad.

[GracchusBabeuf]

Have we learned nothing about the consequences of needlessly mentioning Stalin?Fine. Standards of living of the former USSR then.

[Phalanx]

This is a great thing. Not alcoholism or car accidents, but a population drop is exactly what the world needs. These economists are thinking very short term in how this will impact Russia. I'm hoping of a similar drastic drop in birthrate here in the US, because a world population of 6.5 billion is simply not sustainable.


But yeah, Japan will have more people than all of Russia in a few decades if current trends continue.

Bangladesh, a country with an area of roughly a third of Japans, already has more than Russia or Japan.

[manic expression]

This is a great thing. Not alcoholism or car accidents, but a population drop is exactly what the world needs. These economists are thinking very short term in how this will impact Russia. I'm hoping of a similar drastic drop in birthrate here in the US, because a world population of 6.5 billion is simply not sustainable.

No one's saying the world population should grow. However, Russia's current population trajectory is incredibly negative because it a.) won't make much of a dent in the total world population anyway and b.) has to do with Russia and the well-being of the Russian people. Further, the global goal should be to keep populations stable and healthy, and the Russian population is neither of these things.

The world needs a change in population, but this isn't what we're seeing in Russia; we're seeing an entire country collapse in almost every imaginable category. Calling this a "great thing" is inexplicable.

[Cult of Reason]

The problem is not so much the fact that Russia's population is falling but the way it is falling. Russia's fertility rate was 1.4 in 2008 and 1.25 in 2000. These are both below the replacement level (2.1), but they are not the lowest in Europe. The Czech Republic's fertility rate was 1.25 in 2008 and 1.18 in 2000, lower than Russia's, but we are not hearing of a population collapse there, are we? True, it is a former State Capitalist country, but it is not the only one with a fertility rate lower than Russia. If we look at the richer European countries, Italy had a fertiity rate of 1.3 in 2008 and 1.18 in 2000, while Spain's was 1.3 in 2008 and 1.15 in 2000. Birth rates are obviously not the problem.

The problem is the surge in alcoholism, HIV and other social ills, which have resulted in a drastic fall in the life expectancy of males. This, due to the enfeeblement of those a few years from their deaths, results in a direct reduction in the workforce, while reduction in fertility means a reduction in dependents and, later, a slower reduction in the workforce. Early deaths of existing workers means more than just a decline in the workforce, it also means the loss of older, skilled workers. This is nothing but bad.

[NecroCommie]

The depopulation bomb is not a problem of Russia alone. The entire European continent has signs of similar problems, and this goes especially to eastern europe.

http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y55/silverbeam/CSM%20Blog/europe-population-change.gif

I personally think the reason is that having children makes career advancement very hard. Young couples dont want children to block their careers, especially when the youth is generally poor.

[danyboy27]

i dont think its really a problem itself, it mean less people consuming, more ressources avaliable and eventually more comfort for everyone.

the russian military is about to reform its military structure right now, moving from a conscript army to a more smaller professional force.

they are about to cut by half the number of officier and eventually abolish conscription.

hoo and, for those who may argues about stalinist living standard, may i remember you that at its peak, the soviet union had a lot of occupied territories that where scarvanged for a lot of their raw material and products, the uneven distribution resulted in what you call stalinist living standard.

[ComradeOm]

Bollox. I had a whole post drawn up where I went into detail on the causes of Russia's demographic decline but the damn computer crashed :cursing:

Well I'm not typing it all out again. Here's an excellent, if depressing, documentary I saw a few years ago by Marcel Theroux called 'Death of a Nation'. It really paints a picture of a country almost visibly rotting away. All youTube links

Part 1 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jeK6spOIVro&feature=PlayList&p=938144AD21A12C48&playnext=1&playnext_from=PL&index=64)
Part 2 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iNmQlv9lCHk&feature=PlayList&p=938144AD21A12C48&index=65)
Part 3 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uTJQ_H0xcpA&feature=PlayList&p=938144AD21A12C48&index=66)
Part 4 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O_ABqLO01sM&feature=PlayList&p=938144AD21A12C48&index=67)
Part 5 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5gg17VAZiXo&feature=PlayList&p=938144AD21A12C48&index=68)
Part 6 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L3SCQDhUQ8o&feature=PlayList&p=938144AD21A12C48&index=69)


Eh I've heard it doesn't have so much to do with Soviet brutality, though that may have played a part, as opposed to the losses sustained in the "great patriotic war" that Russia has never recovered fromNo. The GPW introduced some peculiarities to Russian demographics but this was largely in the way of the extreme gender imbalance caused by the deaths of so many of the country's male population. It wasn't until the fall of the USSR that a population deficit appeared as the collapse of the economy and health system produced a country with low birth rates comparable to Europe (due to its an industrialised urban population) and the high mortality rates of a third world nation

[Pogue]

This is a great thing. Not alcoholism or car accidents, but a population drop is exactly what the world needs. These economists are thinking very short term in how this will impact Russia. I'm hoping of a similar drastic drop in birthrate here in the US, because a world population of 6.5 billion is simply not sustainable.



Bangladesh, a country with an area of roughly a third of Japans, already has more than Russia or Japan.

Actually if everything was distributed better we could maintain 12 billion people at current levels of production.

[khad]

i dont think its really a problem itself, it mean less people consuming, more ressources avaliable and eventually more comfort for everyone.

the russian military is about to reform its military structure right now, moving from a conscript army to a more smaller professional force.

they are about to cut by half the number of officier and eventually abolish conscription.

hoo and, for those who may argues about stalinist living standard, may i remember you that at its peak, the soviet union had a lot of occupied territories that where scarvanged for a lot of their raw material and products, the uneven distribution resulted in what you call stalinist living standard.

Utter hogwash.

[NecroCommie]

i dont think its really a problem itself, it mean less people consuming, more ressources avaliable and eventually more comfort for everyone.
In the long run it might be true, yes. However, the depopulation bomb carries a different name here: Pension bomb. Who the heck pays the pensions of half the people when only a fragment of the population is in a proper working age? Pension is a human right after all.

[Dimentio]

Russia has higher demography numbers than Europe, but mortality is much higher for males.

Russia had 148 million people in 1991, and about 140 today. Yet, 8 million ethnic Russians has immigrated from the former SSR's. That means a population deficit of 16 million.

In a way, I guess the introduction of neoliberalism in the 1990's was responsible for the most of this reduction. A lot of people ended up on the streets. Then, they drowned themselves to death.

[khad]

Russia has higher demography numbers than Europe, but mortality is much higher for males.

Russia had 148 million people in 1991, and about 140 today. Yet, 8 million ethnic Russians has immigrated from the former SSR's. That means a population deficit of 16 million.

In a way, I guess the introduction of neoliberalism in the 1990's was responsible for the most of this reduction. A lot of people ended up on the streets. Then, they drowned themselves to death.

Actually, from what I've read of demographic trends, male life expectancy in the Soviet Union was steadily increasing--actually neck and neck with the United States--until about the end of the Khrushchev administration. The tipping point seems to have been 1964-65 when the life expectancy leveled off at about 65 years and then began to endure a slow decline under Brezhnev.