Alternate history: Had the Republic beat Franco

[Blackscare]

I want to discuss the hypothetical consequences of the Republic beating Franco in the Spanish civil war.


Of course, the first thing that comes to mind is that the C.N.T.-F.A.I. would have clashed with the government in order to further the revolution (the "communist" party had taken a distinctly anti-revolutionary stance, at the behest of the Comintern). That is assuming that the government had not taken the steps to totally suppress the CNT like they had with the POUM, but even then it would still be questionable if that course of action could fully eradicate CNT power.


Then, to me the more interesting question, what would this have meant in WW2? If it was allied with the USSR, would it have joined the war effort? Would supporting Spain militarily (through stationing troops the to discourage fascist invasion, etc) have been a detriment to the Soviet war effort (assuming that by that time Spain had not become a force to be reckoned with)?

What if the CNT and/or the POUM won? Would they have been easier targets for the fascists, assuming that no one would have been their benefactors?



There are so many variables and possiblities, it's mind boggling to think how much on civil war could have changed history (or DID change history, there are some that think the tide of fascism could have been stemmed had Franco lost).




Any thoughts?

[Dust Bunnies]

If a pro-Soviet government won: The Soviets would garrison Spain a bit, but not a lot. The Nazis would still invade, possibly having a higher chance of success if a crucial general such as Zhukov was not in Russia. In the long run it would hurt the anti-Nazi effort, the Nazis would blitz down to Gibraltar, seize it from the British, then seal off the Spanish route to the Middle East. Operation Torch and Invasion of Italy go through, most of Spain is occupied by the Nazis. But by 1943 as the Nazis begin to fail they have to have a new strategy; hold onto the crucial parts of Gibraltar and pump the fortress they set up there with as much supplies as possible as they pull their troops out of Spain and create a basic defensive line in Southern France, protecting from the tattered Spain. Spain would come out of this broken, in ruins, it would simply become another member of the Warsaw Pact. The island of Palma (island east of the Iberian Peninsula) would become a Soviet naval base, raising Cold War tensions. Overall, history goes unchanged, Soviet Union falls along with the Warsaw Pact, Spain eventually turns into a Capitalist country.

If a non-Soviet, Communist government seized power: They would mass a defense, but most likely be steamrolled in a formal fight while their resistance movement with guerrilla tactics would break the back of the Nazi invasion, causing tanks to sit there, abandoned due to lack of supplies.Gibraltar would hold, the Soviets defense or Allied invasions would go better due to the fact probably at least some panzers were devoted to the Spanish assualt. Eventually the war would come to an end with Operation Torch, Invasion of Italy, but the US would land in Spain coming to "save" them from the Nazis (and to implement a US friendly puppet). The Spanish guerillas unfortuantly are very badly depleted from fighting the Nazis, but skirmishes disrupt US supply chains and after witnessing the logistics nightmare the Nazis had to go through they would eventually make a deal, a non-Communist, US puppet to be implemented on Palma (the island east of the Iberian Peninsula) and the US can move freely through Spain in exchange the US would give Spain some minor industrial assistance. Overall, any assistance would be good for Spain, it is in flames from the resistance against the Nazis. A war with the US would crush any hope of a proleteriat run Spain. They take the assistance, and begin to rebuild a place that is better than the CCCP. Due to the fact other countries are in ruins as well (as it happened in history) the cross-roads are here, this Communist Spain can either support a revolution militarily in a near by country, taking a risk of ahnilation at the hands of the US if the revolution fails. Or, they can sit around, rebuild, eventually falling to pieces by 1960's at the earliest, 2010's at the latest without any real Communist socities to help.

To summarize, Spain would be destroyed either way, most likely engulfed into World War 2.

I don't know much about the Spanish Civil War so this is just my uneducated prediction.

[Dust Bunnies]

What if we lived in a world without hypothetical questions?

Then the world would have no preparations. When you prepare you have to ask yourself, "What if". Without hypothetical question situations (such as it will be sunny when a person says it is sunny) then everything would be certain in life. If you meant we were incapable of asking "what if" then our planning would be flawed every time since we would have none. A stable civilization could never rise since loopholes would be huge.

[Blackscare]

Welcome to MissingthePoint/irony Town, population: dustbunnies.


Well, your first post was pretty stupid and pointless in the first place, so I'll let him slip :D

[Blackscare]

And thank you DB, that was an interesting post.

I can see that the US would probably have filled the supposed "power vacuum" left if it was a truly libertarian revolution in Spain. Either that or France (post-war imperialism I mean).

[Dust Bunnies]

Welcome to MissingthePoint/irony Town, population: dustbunnies.

Just had to answer the question as if it is a real one, been away from Revleft for a while, I want to feel smart. :P

I'd hate to do backseat modding but I don't want to see most of the thread trashed for off-topicness.

One interesting scenario, if the Republic had won, beat Franco, and resisted Communist influence, essentially making it a basic Capitalist country. It would be destabilized from the Civil War. But I would think during the invasion of France maybe it would try to pump troops into France or atleast start building their own Maginot Line in northern Spain and join the Allies, using their holdings in the Mediterraneans to help in the Middle East?

[Dust Bunnies]

And thank you DB, that was an interesting post.

I can see that the US would probably have filled the supposed "power vacuum" left if it was a truly libertarian revolution in Spain. Either that or France (post-war imperialism I mean).

The task of rebuilding would be too big for any conquests soon after WW2. The Marshall Plan would speed France's recovery, but I'm sure having an Anarchist Spain on its underbelly would cause some chaos, preventing a full recovery of the south.

[Blackscare]

Hm, it's an interesting situation. I think that anything other than Franco winning would have for sure pulled Spain into the war.

Probably the best chances of avoiding/fairing well in the war would go in this order, from greatest to least. This is just my opinion, of course.

1: Franco wins
2: Spain goes capitalist and somehow allies with the...erm... allies
3: Spain goes capitalist and allies with USSR
4: Spain goes authentic communist, has no backers and unless the Allies for some reason support them anyway, is considered fair game by any power.

[ComradeOm]

The important thing to ask is when does the Republic win. If its a swift victory then the centrists remain in control in Madrid. After '37 or '38 the power shifts to the PCE and a far more Moscow-orientated government emerges

Of course the reality is that Spain was, by and large, a sideshow for Europe during the late 1930s and was more or less openly acknowledged as such by Munich. I fail to see how a Republican victory could have "stemmed" the fascist advance. More interesting to my mind is what if the Popular Front in France had aided the Republic and thus set up an earlier Franco-German confrontation before 1939. I'm half-working on an alt-history that asks that question


...guerrilla tactics would break the back of the Nazi invasion, causing tanks to sit there, abandoned due to lack of suppliesThat's a very optimistic analysis. What are you basing it on? Certainly not the historical performance of the anti-fascist guerrillas following the end of the Civil War. Bear in mind as well that a significant percentage of the population, those who supported Franco, would have come out in favour of the Nazis

My own assessment in the case of a German invasion is far more pessimistic. Regardless of the composition of the Madrid government, Spain remains an impoverished nation devastated after years of war. The Popular Army is poorly armed and relying on Great War tactics; the militias, if they still exist, remain as hopelessly incompetent as they were historically. Neither have a history of guerilla warfare. In short, the Wehrmacht would cut through either like a knife in hot butter. In this they'd have considerable support from the Falangist remnants (who haven't simply disappeared) and any German invasion would have almost certainly seen the establishment of a Nationalist puppet state. German soldiers would be swimming off the Rock of Gibraltar in weeks

As for Soviet garrisons, that depends on broader European politics. In the first place Stalin, while perhaps willing to spare a mere few hundred tanks, is not going to compromise the defence of the USSR for Spain. Which means that the likes of Zhukov are not likely to be spared when there are dangers closer to home (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Khalkhin_Gol). In addition, any Soviet deployment in Spain would immediately raise tensions with other Powers, something that Stalin is unlikely to do given his efforts to form an anti-fascist alliance or later maintain the Non-Aggression Pact. In fact if the latter is still holding then there's no reason for German tanks to cross the Pyrenees in the first place. Spain might escape with neutrality

[Dimentio]

If a pro-Soviet government won: The Soviets would garrison Spain a bit, but not a lot. The Nazis would still invade, possibly having a higher chance of success if a crucial general such as Zhukov was not in Russia. In the long run it would hurt the anti-Nazi effort, the Nazis would blitz down to Gibraltar, seize it from the British, then seal off the Spanish route to the Middle East. Operation Torch and Invasion of Italy go through, most of Spain is occupied by the Nazis. But by 1943 as the Nazis begin to fail they have to have a new strategy; hold onto the crucial parts of Gibraltar and pump the fortress they set up there with as much supplies as possible as they pull their troops out of Spain and create a basic defensive line in Southern France, protecting from the tattered Spain. Spain would come out of this broken, in ruins, it would simply become another member of the Warsaw Pact. The island of Palma (island east of the Iberian Peninsula) would become a Soviet naval base, raising Cold War tensions. Overall, history goes unchanged, Soviet Union falls along with the Warsaw Pact, Spain eventually turns into a Capitalist country.

If a non-Soviet, Communist government seized power: They would mass a defense, but most likely be steamrolled in a formal fight while their resistance movement with guerrilla tactics would break the back of the Nazi invasion, causing tanks to sit there, abandoned due to lack of supplies.Gibraltar would hold, the Soviets defense or Allied invasions would go better due to the fact probably at least some panzers were devoted to the Spanish assualt. Eventually the war would come to an end with Operation Torch, Invasion of Italy, but the US would land in Spain coming to "save" them from the Nazis (and to implement a US friendly puppet). The Spanish guerillas unfortuantly are very badly depleted from fighting the Nazis, but skirmishes disrupt US supply chains and after witnessing the logistics nightmare the Nazis had to go through they would eventually make a deal, a non-Communist, US puppet to be implemented on Palma (the island east of the Iberian Peninsula) and the US can move freely through Spain in exchange the US would give Spain some minor industrial assistance. Overall, any assistance would be good for Spain, it is in flames from the resistance against the Nazis. A war with the US would crush any hope of a proleteriat run Spain. They take the assistance, and begin to rebuild a place that is better than the CCCP. Due to the fact other countries are in ruins as well (as it happened in history) the cross-roads are here, this Communist Spain can either support a revolution militarily in a near by country, taking a risk of ahnilation at the hands of the US if the revolution fails. Or, they can sit around, rebuild, eventually falling to pieces by 1960's at the earliest, 2010's at the latest without any real Communist socities to help.

To summarize, Spain would be destroyed either way, most likely engulfed into World War 2.

I don't know much about the Spanish Civil War so this is just my uneducated prediction.

Spain would most likely have been taken by the allies though, and had the king or some form of bourgeoisie republic restored. It would not have been too different from today, only poorer probably (as Franco made some economic reforms which turned Spain rich).

[ComradeOm]

...as Franco made some economic reforms which turned Spain richHmmm? The so-called 'Spanish Miracle' of the 1960s was largely the result of Franco abandoning, or at least moderating, his policies of the previous two decades. Even then it was not until the 1990s that the economic boom that created the Spain we know today occurred. For most of the 20th C, particularly the Franco period, Spain was an economic basketcase

[Dimentio]

Hmmm? The so-called 'Spanish Miracle' of the 1960s was largely the result of Franco abandoning, or at least moderating, his policies of the previous two decades. Even then it was not until the 1990s that the economic boom that created the Spain we know today occurred. For most of the 20th C, particularly the Franco period, Spain was an economic basketcase

Yes, but during the 1960;s, there was still the fascist dictatorship?

[x359594]

Yes, but during the 1960;s, there was still the fascist dictatorship?

Indeed there was. Almost immediately after the fascist victory a guerrilla movement arose and lasted into the mid-1960s. The movie Behold, A Pale Horse (1964), is fictionalized account of Manuel Sabaté's raid on the town of Sant Celoni near the French border in 1960. Antonio Téllez has written two books on the subject that are available in English, The Anarchist Resistance to Franco and Sabaté: Guerrilla Extraordinary.

Franco was executing political prisoners right to the end of his miserable life despite world wide protest.

By the way, Dust Bunnies has provided some very interesting speculation.

[Psy]

I think you guys are forgetting between Spain and France is mostly mountains and the British Navy would have made a German ambitious assault on Spain very risky. Mountain roads leading into Spain could have easily mined and booby trapped for example planting explosive charges higher up on the mountain and running camouflaged wires to pressure triggers hidden in the road that set off the explosives causing rock slides to come down on the area around the pressure trigger. As for were the mountains stop at the north it is narrow enough for Spain to have put up a good defence if it was fortified.