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View Full Version : BIS Estimates Derivatives Trading Totaled at $1,140 trillion



Niemand
14th March 2009, 01:02
There are a number of startling factors for investors to consider when evaluating the possibility of a larger looming economic crises. A few authors have guessed that the majority of writedowns are now done and that the worst may be past us. From the most recent news, I believe we may extend losses past the most recent credit crises fueled by collateralized debt. We may soon face a banking crises larger than the Savings and Loan crises of the late 1980’s.





Here are a few factors to consider:





1) The Fed may increase interest rates in the near future. An increase in rates is bullish for the dollar and necessary to fight inflation. An increase would add tremendous pressure to an already fragile housing market by making payments on adjustable rate mortgages more expensive. Increases would also make borrowing more expensive and would restrict access to already tight credit. The potential impact of rate increases is unknown.





2) Any failure in the derivatives market would signal the beginning of an imminent crash. Estimates vary wildly over the total value of the derivatives market. The Financial Times recently estimated that the size of the derivatives markets stood at roughly $450 trillion dollars. As of December 2007, The Bank of International Settlements estimated that the amount of listed credit derivatives, i.e. tradable in some form through an exchange, stood at roughly $548 trillion. The amount of OTC derivatives (http://www.bis.org/statistics/derstats.htm) was estimated at $596 trillion notional value. This brings the total derivatives estimate by The Bank of International Settlements to 1,140 trillion.
http://www.rawgreed.com/a-possible-economic-crash
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Comrades, this is but further proof that capitalism itself is threatened with implosion. Surely, this will serve such a blow to every single human being alive that capitalism itself is unlikely to survive through the next decade. In fact, I'd be willing to say that a turning point will be made in 2012 as it will be our historical analogy to 1933 as both periods were four years after the Great Crashes.



I think this crisis has presented us with a unique situation in history. Not one period in history has come close to the collapse which we are currently experiencing. The only situation I could see mirroring this disaster would be that of the collapse of the Roman Empire.



While I may sound alarmist at the moment, which I may very well be, I don't think I'm the only one who can't comprehend one quadrillion dollars, much less a billion. I bring up a quadrillion as I believe that a quadrillion is 1,000 trillions, which is the only amount that comes close to how deep we're in this shit. Of course, we may all be surprised by the ruling class, as necessity is the mother of all invention, especially in times of life-threatening disaster.


However, it is of my opinion that even with the intervention of fascism by the ruling class, capitalism's fate has been sealed and our lives are heretofore damned to abject poverty. I just can't see how capitalism could possibly recover from this.

Hyacinth
14th March 2009, 07:40
...capitalism's fate has been sealed and our lives are heretofore damned to abject poverty.

Even if capitalism's fate has been sealed—a pronouncement which I think is too early to make—we certainly aren't "heretofore damned to abject poverty", as socialism is a viable alternative, and increasingly a more and more attractive alternative.

cyu
14th March 2009, 17:36
we certainly aren't "heretofore damned to abject poverty", as socialism is a viable alternative
Exactly. If we all believed either capitalism survives or we're doomed to poverty, why are we even in this forum?

It is in fact that so many people already do live in abject poverty that people start looking for alternatives to capitalism.

Niemand
14th March 2009, 18:26
Even if capitalism's fate has been sealed—a pronouncement which I think is too early to make—we certainly aren't "heretofore damned to abject poverty", as socialism is a viable alternative, and increasingly a more and more attractive alternative.
What I meant was that until socialism arises, we will all undoubtedly be forced into abject poverty, even for some time after a socialist government is installed, we'd still be impoverished.

cyu
16th March 2009, 20:33
even for some time after a socialist government is installed, we'd still be impoverished.

Nope - not unless people started destroying machinery, farm land, equipment, technology, or started killing off the people who know how to use this stuff.

Basically, all real "capital", people, raw materials, equipment, are still around. Only the fake "capital" - paper and numbers on computers - is disappearing. All you really need is the real stuff to keep producing at the same rate you used to before the "recession".

What will really change once capitalism is gone? Well, instead of a such a large percentage of the world's economic resources being hired to produce yachts and helipad / tennis courts for the rich, those resources would be redirected at producing stuff for the poor and everyone else.