The big "D" word...

[Ol' Dirty]

Do you think that the situation we are in is going to develop into a crisis similar to the Great Depression of the twenties and thirties of the previous century?

[LOLseph Stalin]

It's hard to say. With the way things are going right now it could develop into a depression. A majority of people I talk to believe that there's a good chance it could. If it does develop into a depression it could be good for us. Capitalism's days of dominance are coming to an end...

[LOLseph Stalin]

It sure looks like the shits about to hit the fan. Not that I'm particularly awaiting such a scenario because that just means more job losses and homelessness for the working class people. The fucking capitalist class is just going to enjoy themselves in the meanwhile as usual.http://www.revleft.com/vb/big-d-word-p1373407/revleft/smilies/sad.gif

It would mean more job losses, but more support towards Socialism as well. I guess it's just a sacrifice that has to be made to prepare for revolution.

[hugsandmarxism]

It sure looks like the shits about to hit the fan. Not that I'm particularly awaiting such a scenario because that just means more job losses and homelessness for the working class people. The fucking capitalist class is just going to enjoy themselves in the meanwhile as usual.:(

I don't like the idea for these reasons as well, but it seems that people need a big wake-up call concerning Capitalism. Suffering, and seeing the cappies live it up, will drive more people to question the system and advocate for a right to their economic destiny. Still, there is nothing nice about Depression, even if it does open people's eyes about the current state of affairs. :(

[Sean]

I don't like the idea for these reasons as well, but it seems that people need a big wake-up call concerning Capitalism. Suffering, and seeing the cappies live it up, will drive more people to question the system and advocate for a right to their economic destiny. Still, there is nothing nice about Depression, even if it does open people's eyes about the current state of affairs. :(
Its more likely to drive more people into the hands of groups like the BNP and blame Johnny Foreigner for the lack of jobs.

[Communist Theory]

It's hard to say. With the way things are going right now it could develop into a depression. A majority of people I talk to believe that there's a good chance it could. If it does develop into a depression it could be good for us. Capitalism's days of dominance are coming to an end...
While it *could* be good for Communism possibly. It will not be good for the proletariat as long as we live in a Capitalistic state. I really like living in my house so I don't want a depression to happen.

[LOLseph Stalin]

While it *could* be good for Communism possibly. It will not be good for the proletariat as long as we live in a Capitalistic state. I really like living in my house so I don't want a depression to happen.

Yea. Luckily my dad own his house so I don't think I would end up homeless. Alot of other people would though. :(

[LOLseph Stalin]

Thats not the way to get support for socialism IMO. The working class is under the hammer both during boom and bust periods. There needs to be more class consciousness which will need to support for socialism.

That's why we need a vanguard to educate the masses.

[Communist Theory]

Yea. Luckily my dad own his house so I don't think I would end up homeless. Alot of other people would though. :(
Well there have been some people that owned their houses and had to sell them to save money, some used to make 6 figures too. If you read those i-Reports on CNN on the Recession

[LOLseph Stalin]

Well there have been some people that owned their houses and had to sell them to save money, some used to make 6 figures too. If you read those i-Reports on CNN on the Recession

Ok, damn. D:

Maybe I will be homeless then. A depression would be worse than I thought. All workers are going to suffer even more.

[hugsandmarxism]

Its more likely to drive more people into the hands of groups like the BNP and blame Johnny Foreigner for the lack of jobs.

:( You're probably right about that. These kinds of events tend to make fascism's ugly head rise out of the darkest corners of society.

[Communist Theory]

Here is one of those stories I mentioned
http://www.cnn.com/2009/LIVING/02/26/economy.survivor.farm/index.html

[Diagoras]

That's why we need a vanguard to educate the masses.

:rolleyes:

[Diagoras]

I do think it likely that a depression of some kind will come about. However, capitalism is not going to collapse upon itself. As was already mentioned, we can make this work to our benefit, if resentment is effectively directed towards the rich. Of course, many will likely vent their frustrations against those that they have traditionally been taught to view as the Other. The Right has quite a firm grip over much of the media and ideological apparatuses of society, and I won't be underestimating that power to shape the opinions of the more idiotic. It has worked so far :unsure:.

[hugsandmarxism]

That's why we need a vanguard to educate the masses.


:rolleyes:

Uh-ohs! Tendency war! :lol::rolleyes:

Anyhow, i think that as far as positive, radical change is concerned, things will have to get worse before they can get better. I hope I'm wrong though...

[LOLseph Stalin]

Uh-ohs! Tendency war! http://www.revleft.com/vb/big-d-word-t102936/revleft/smilies2/laugh.gifhttp://www.revleft.com/vb/big-d-word-t102936/revleft/smilies/001_rolleyes.gif

Oh noes.:mellow: Hide me from the Stalinists.

[Vahanian]

no hide the ice picks:thumbup:

anyways, we will probably end up in some kind of a depression but not of the scale of the great depression

[LOLseph Stalin]

no hide the ice pickshttp://www.revleft.com/vb/big-d-word-p1373542/revleft/smilies2/thumbup.gif

But I need those Ice-Picks. I still need to get my revenge on Stalin for killing comrade Trotsky.


anyways, we will probably end up in some kind of a depression but not of the scale of the great depression

Maybe. People here in my area are definitely pessimistic about it.

[Lord Testicles]

The biggest "October suprise" of all (http://libcom.org/library/the-biggest-october-surprise-all-a-world-capitalist-crash-loren-goldner)

[Djehuti]

Do you think that the situation we are in is going to develop into a crisis similar to the Great Depression of the twenties and thirties of the previous century?

No, and I sure hope not!

[Some Red Guy]

The incoming depression is interesting. Cappies blamed state intervention for the lenght of the one in the 30's, rather interesting considering there was no deprssion in the USSR. Those people never learn I guess. The stimulus package won't solve anything but people say it's disguised socialism because Obama is behind it. They all fail to realise that capitalism will just keep bringing us depressions, it's a part of the system. I'm afraid many will buy into the crap that the markets aren't free enough and that's the reason for the problem.

[Bilan]

Its more likely to drive more people into the hands of groups like the BNP and blame Johnny Foreigner for the lack of jobs.

Recent events tell quite a different tale.

[John Lenin]

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/dayart/20051207/cartoon20051207.gif

[Panda Tse Tung]

Apparently I'm (with only 1 other person) the only honest person who voted other. Cause i don't know, and neither does anyone else.

[Charles Xavier]

This isn't something to look forward to, our lives, well unless you are financially wealthy are going to get harder. The Working Class is going to be facing huge problems that it needs to overcome, in terms of its leadership (which in north America is siding with the boss class by and large), its real wages disappearing, lack of jobs especially meaningful work, and speeding up of privatization of social services as a quick fix to raise capital by the capitalist class.

Do not be mistaken the Capitalist class is not sitting on its hands, the crisis is a time to increase repression and worsen working conditions from the influx of a more exploitable working class, which more and more people compete over fewer and fewer jobs. Which the reduction in real wages cannot prop up the economy by consumer spending, further increasing the crisis.

Those who think this is the end of capitalism and revolution will fall from the sky are not helpful. You must work in the mass movements. Build the fightback. Without a fightback there will be no possibility of revolution as there will be no revolutionary situation.

The only thing that came out of this crisis that benefits our class is that the need to struggle is more clear.

[Tjis]

Recent events tell quite a different tale.
Perhaps in your area. Over here, according to some recent poll, the most popular party is the muslim bashing neo-liberal rightwing party PVV (party of "freedom"). You might know the PVV from its leader, Geert Wilders, who made the movie Fitna and was recently banned from entering the UK.

[BIG BROTHER]

The capitalists in general have learned some lessons from the official great Depression. But...I think it is possible to develop a similar scenario.

[Greenman]

It is too early to tell, but things are surely going to get much worse - whether things will approach or exceed what they did in the Thirties in absolute, rather than relative terms - ie widespread grinding poverty and destitution to the point of starvation for much of the working class across much of the industrialised "developed" West (my own father suffered malnutrition, cold, lack of basics and clothing and appalling cramped living conditions as a child in the Thirties in England) - is another question. For things to get that bad or worse would entail the collapse of state welfare systems, with all that implies and entails.
I think we can say with reasonable safety that the "medicine" to be served up by the G20 in April - being trawled as Obama and his little helper Gordon saving the world - will be very unpalatable for ordinary working people, and will probably involve even more powers to bodies like the IMF.
The point for socialists and revolutionaries of all stripes is to redouble our efforts to agitate, educate and organise - to raise the slogan that "we won't pay for their crisis" and to press home the argument that this is not an aberration brought about by a few greedy bankers, but the inevitable consequence (along with others like resource exhaustion and climate change) of the capitalist system.

[political_animal]

I voted other because whilst the economic situation is very serious, it is unlikely that we will see the sorts of terrible scenes as there were in the 30's. Social conditions are very much better and (certainly in the UK) the welfare system is better able to help those affected.

Then again, we never know what else is round the corner...

[Greenman]

I think by April/May the direction in which this is all going could be much clearer, but may well be muddied for many by media fawning over some "global salvation plan" fronted by their latest darling, Obama.

[piet11111]

certainly seems like it only things are moving much faster then they did in the 30's

and the potential damage (seeing the amounts of money involved) is going to make a repeat of the great depression seem like a best case scenario.

[Wakizashi the Bolshevik]

This crisis will develop into a Great Depression.
It is possible this happens in 2009 or 2010.
It is possible that it happens later.
But it will happen.

Crisisses like this will happen more frequently and harsher than now, as long as capitalism continues to exist.

[Raúl Duke]

I'm not sure right now.

[Stranger Than Paradise]

As long as this continues and continues to get worse then more and more people will become further disillusioned with the system we have. I am both worried and excited about it. Movements resisting and seeking revolution should grow, that's good. But the financial situations of the workers is going to get worse and worse.

[Psy]

We are not going to see a repeat of the Great Depression, we are not looking at simply over production but we are watching the entire capitalist mode of production failing as the parasitic capitalists are preventing the destruction of capital thus preventing the restoration of the rate of profit as the parasitic fraction of the capitalist class want the bourgeois states to bail them out as the expense of the health of the overall capitalist system, they don't care if this means the rate of profits goes into negative territory as the parasitic capitalists only care about short term gains.

[KC]

Do you think that the situation we are in is going to develop into a crisis similar to the Great Depression of the twenties and thirties of the previous century?

In terms of wealth destruction, this current crisis far surpasses any one before in human history. It's important to keep in mind, though, that the vast majority of this wealth that was destroyed never actually existed. It was mostly loans, mortgage-backed securities, credit, speculative assets, etc...

As for whether or not this will turn into the "next Great Depression," it is certainly possible. Currently, the markets have rallied behind Geithner's and the administration's plans, but I don't think this will last very long. During times of crisis only the government can step in and absorb the brunt of the impact, in order to prevent these bad assets from causing a domino effect which would cripple the economy, if not make it collapse entirely. So that is what has happened in the past and what is happening now.

The difference now, though, is that the hole that the government has to patch is so massive, and the US government is in such a tight financial spot due to its deficits and obligations that it is not possible to fill it. That is why we are now seeing the Federal Reserve "buying" bad assets, for example. Where they do not have cash they are simply printing it. This is going to have profound impact in the coming months, though, as it will cause a significant rise in inflation. Similarly, Obama's budget and Geithner's plans are in the same position; they might seem to work in the short term but in the mid- to long-term they are going to cause a lot of damage.

The US government is currently grasping around in the dark, it seems, and until it comes up with some kind of outside-the-box solution, they are not going to be able to beat this crisis. So as to your question, it could, but nobody can really say for certain.

For a repeat of the Great Depression, people have to lose confidence in the banks. For that to happen, the FDIC has to fail. I recently read an article stating that the FDIC doesn't even have enough financing to cover the failure of one banking firm, much less multiple firms (unfortunately I can't find the article right now; I'll edit in the link when I find it), so this could very well happen. But I'm guessing that if that happened the government would come up with some contingency funding, which would probably have the Fed just print up money to hand out.

[pastradamus]

The only difference between todays depression and the one of the 1930's is that our monetary systems are still of relatively stable value. With this bailing out the banks scenario across the globe something has to give and Its going to get a lot,lot,lot worse before it gets better. This is just the tip of the iceberg.

[PCommie]

Yeah. It will. And that depression is going to be the seed of communist revolt.

Obama's campaign was based on a new way of doing things. He is now calling for more money for GM & Chrysler. :rolleyes:

Capitalism will meet its own demise. I would remind you of Marx's theory of negation? Capitalism will negate itself in this manner.

H&S forever,
-PC

[Poison]

I voted yes, but please?I was a little uncomfortable voting that.

If the economy crashes we'd be losing our homes, iPods, SUVs, McDonald's, jobs, education, healthcare...that's sad but that is how most of America and the world have to live. Put in that perspective it honestly isn't as sad--we'll survive if we want to.

There's nothing stopping us from reclaiming farms, growing our own food, and getting by. I can't feel that sorry for people when it's a matter of getting out of a mindset. We have plenty of food, homes, and everything we need.

But...as has been said before you can't want to advance the interests of the working class if you're fine with them suffering. And I'm not--but, it's complicated.

[Monkey Riding Dragon]

In my view, the global capitalist system is indeed headed for a '30s-style depression and I mean in a very immediate sense.

[TheCultofAbeLincoln]

Its more likely to drive more people into the hands of groups like the BNP and blame Johnny Foreigner for the lack of jobs.

This brings up an interesting point.

Like it or not, in the US Obama is viewed as a leftist. If he fails to keep the economy from shrinking at the current rate or faster, most people in the US will believe that the leftist solution failed.

Then, they will look to the right for a new way forward.

[Psy]

This brings up an interesting point.

Like it or not, in the US Obama is viewed as a leftist. If he fails to keep the economy from shrinking at the current rate or faster, most people in the US will believe that the leftist solution failed.

Then, they will look to the right for a new way forward.

Actually no, Obama public image of being a leftist already has contradictions for example the AIG incident, meaning the failure of Obama could as easily result in a swing to the left.

[RedSonRising]

I think statist governments will take advantage of the situation to benefit their need, bringing an end to "private" capitalism, but I feel that it will somehow be preserved and reformed in the guise of a solution, when in reality the situation might simply adapt to ensure the ruling class's control. Only leftist revolutionary action and activism will bring an end to it in my opinion, but that isn't really a collapse.

[robbo203]

It's hard to say. With the way things are going right now it could develop into a depression. A majority of people I talk to believe that there's a good chance it could. If it does develop into a depression it could be good for us. Capitalism's days of dominance are coming to an end...


How so? If you are thinking that capitalism is about to collapse it wont. It didnt during the Great Depression and there is no internal mechanism that could guarantee its collapse. The falling rate of prpfit experienced in the early post war years was countered by the rising rate of profit in subsequent years as Marx´s famous counter-tendencies kicked - to wit, the intensification of the rate of exploitation.

If you think, on the other hand, that depression would result in a change in outlook among workers that might herald a revolutionary change in society, this may be possible, but realistically speaking, it is more probable that once again the statist model of capitalism will prevail as it tends to do in hard times and most workers will be conned into thinking this is the way ahead - more regulation, more state control , more state capitalism. Increased competition on the labour market might also result in more nationalistic and racist expressions among workers

This is why it is absolutely critical at this point that the Revolutionary Left should should be crystal clear about putting forward a genuine communist alternative to the chaos of capitalism and one that decisively rejects state capitalism and its embracing of the state as part of the solution

[ZeroNowhere]

Capitalism's days of dominance are coming to an end...
Oh, come on, that's bollocks and you know it. They may come to an end, but are they doing so? Well, no. Capitalism will not just collapse, and most notions that it will are based on faulty views on capitalist crisis.


Crisisses like this will happen more frequently and harsher than now, as long as capitalism continues to exist.
This piece of rhetorical flourish didn't have too much of a leg to stand on.

[Psy]

How so? If you are thinking that capitalism is about to collapse it wont. It didnt during the Great Depression and there is no internal mechanism that could guarantee its collapse. The falling rate of prpfit experienced in the early post war years was countered by the rising rate of profit in subsequent years as Marx´s famous counter-tendencies kicked - to wit, the intensification of the rate of exploitation.

Look at the world economy before the crisis. Since the 1980's the world economy was driven by capitalists raiding capital from other capitalists and consumption driven by unprecedented debt, capitalism started its decay phase decades ago, capitalism started this crisis only a shadow of what it was during the Great Depression.



If you think, on the other hand, that depression would result in a change in outlook among workers that might herald a revolutionary change in society, this may be possible, but realistically speaking, it is more probable that once again the statist model of capitalism will prevail as it tends to do in hard times and most workers will be conned into thinking this is the way ahead - more regulation, more state control , more state capitalism. Increased competition on the labour market might also result in more nationalistic and racist expressions among workers


This is why it is absolutely critical at this point that the Revolutionary Left should should be crystal clear about putting forward a genuine communist alternative to the chaos of capitalism and one that decisively rejects state capitalism and its embracing of the state as part of the solution
We should be clear about putting forward a communist alternative.

[redarmyfaction38]

Do you think that the situation we are in is going to develop into a crisis similar to the Great Depression of the twenties and thirties of the previous century?
it could easily do so, but the minions are running round trying to save their arses with our money and they might just pull it off given the amount of wool the general populace have over their eyes.

[piet11111]

it could easily do so, but the minions are running round trying to save their arses with our money and they might just pull it off given the amount of wool the general populace have over their eyes.

they might get out of the current crisis by using our money but they are only laying the groundwork for an even bigger more destructive crisis in the future.

just look at the debt the governments are taking on and the interest rates alone would cripple any national budget they have while achieving jackshit for the private company's with the bailouts.

[Psy]

they might get out of the current crisis by using our money but they are only laying the groundwork for an even bigger more destructive crisis in the future.

just look at the debt the governments are taking on and the interest rates alone would cripple any national budget they have while achieving jackshit for the private company's with the bailouts.


I doubt the stimulus would do anything, it is amounts to flapping your arms while in free fall. The real problem is not the crisis in the finical sector that is nothing but a side show the real problem is the crisis in the productive sectors (were capitalists actually extract surplus value from workers) and the fact the rate of profit for the productive sector is currently negative (meaning capitalists on average get less money from selling commodities then it costs to produce) causing a violent contraction of production of commodities around the world.

[Charles Xavier]

the stimulus is to help the bosses not the workers.

[Yazman]

Things seem to be looking up lately, though. We have yet to see whether the recent gains in the US economy are just a "dead cat bounce" or not. Give it a few months, by the time June-July comes around we'll know.

[Charles Xavier]

The jobs are the only gains that are important.

Cuts to jobs and wages will make the crisis worse.

[Psy]

Things seem to be looking up lately, though. We have yet to see whether the recent gains in the US economy are just a "dead cat bounce" or not. Give it a few months, by the time June-July comes around we'll know.
Like I said the financial markets are a side show, the real unfolding crisis is in the productive sectors were we have violent contraction.

[Yazman]

Like I said the financial markets are a side show, the real unfolding crisis is in the productive sectors were we have violent contraction.

Yeah, things seem to be on the up and up a bit but as I said it could very well just be a dead cat bounce. I am hoping it is to be honest, I don't want to see a quick recovery.

[piet11111]

I doubt the stimulus would do anything, it is amounts to flapping your arms while in free fall. The real problem is not the crisis in the finical sector that is nothing but a side show the real problem is the crisis in the productive sectors (were capitalists actually extract surplus value from workers) and the fact the rate of profit for the productive sector is currently negative (meaning capitalists on average get less money from selling commodities then it costs to produce) causing a violent contraction of production of commodities around the world.

i don't believe it will do anything but i just put "might get out" because eventually recovery will happen and the bail out might serve as life support just long enough for some until that time comes.

[Psy]

i don't believe it will do anything but i just put "might get out" because eventually recovery will happen and the bail out might serve as life support just long enough for some until that time comes.
Recovery might happen, or the capitalist class might be so rotten and corrupt that they fail to restore the rate of profit, we are already seeing parasitic elements of the capitalist class block efforts of the bourgeoisie state to restore capitalist growth.

[Yazman]

Recovery might happen, or the capitalist class might be so rotten and corrupt that they fail to restore the rate of profit, we are already seeing parasitic elements of the capitalist class block efforts of the bourgeoisie state to restore capitalist growth.

I wish this was true but I have seen no real evidence to prove it. All signs point to a recovery within the next couple of years.

[Psy]

I wish this was true but I have seen no real evidence to prove it. All signs point to a recovery within the next couple of years.
You are looking at the finical markets not the productive industries. The finical markets is currently dominated by short term speculation, meanwhile productive capitalists have stated they expect to contract throughout 2009. Let me repeat that, the capitalists that actually exploit workers to extract surplus value are stating they are planning that the entire year of 2009 will be a loss and that they are planning to scale back production of commodities till 2010 which they will then reevaluate the markets. In other words we have not seen the bottom of this crisis, we still have to go through the crisis of a contracting capitalist economy that will be a long drawn out crisis due to the length of production cycles.

[Jia]

Maybe so, it is too early to tell and for anyone to see for certian! They did not forsee this crisis, so how could they see its path!

[Psy]

Maybe so, it is too early to tell and for anyone to see for certian! They did not forsee this crisis, so how could they see its path!
It is because productive capitalists can't forsee the crisis that it will drag it out. Right now productive capitalists are reacting to market wide overproduction so they plan for contracting markets which means scaling back production yet due to production cycles it means they are scaling production back for their foreseeable future.

[Trystan]

I have no idea, to be honest. I certainly don't want a great depression. Wanting this to happen = socialism of fools. It would be more out of bitterness than a desire to actually change things for the better. Because who is going to suffer? A: The working-class.