The Victorian Bush fires

[butterfly]

I understand this is something that has gained international attention. Is your source of commercial media making the connection between the events unfolding and the actual cause; climate change?


On a side note the droughts in Northern China atm are the worst on record and will see many go hungry this year due to poor crop harvests. The resulting deaths will be far worse than anything experienced in Victoria and will probably go unnoticed.

[alhop10]

UK. No. I hadn't even thought about it. That's so fucked up. They aren't making the connection between global warming and capitalism either.

[piet11111]

netherlands: no

[Comrade Anarchist]

I live in Virginia in the south where the bible is a science text book. The majority of people believe in global warming here but most think of it as nothing more than a gradually warming and not a catotrophic event. But some here dont even believe in it. so i guess the media doesnt really connect here.

[ComradeOm]

On a side note the droughts in Northern China atm are the worst on record and will see many go hungry this year due to poor crop harvests. The resulting deaths will be far worse than anything experienced in Victoria and will probably go unnoticed.This has been mentioned in the papers here. As has a possibly and highly tentative connection with bush fires and global warming

(Long article short - climate change did not cause these deaths but it does increase the odds of such fires starting)

[Yazman]

I live in the Philippines although I am Australian. The media here has been reporting on it quite a bit although I do not believe I have seen/heard any connections to climate change.

Nor do I feel it would be appropriate, especially considering the Victorian Police suspect it was the result of ARSON and not climate change.

[butterfly]

True, some of the fires were caused by arson, however this is only possible on such a scale when the conditions are extremely dry...a result of climate change.
You could get rid of the arsonists and there would still be bush fires, you could get rid of the fires and there would still be drought.
The media is missing the bigger picture here.

[Yazman]

True, some of the fires were caused by arson, however this is only possible on such a scale when the conditions are extremely dry...a result of climate change.
You could get rid of the arsonists and there would still be bush fires, you could get rid of the fires and there would still be drought.
The media is missing the bigger picture here.

I'm not so sure. Australia has always had long stretches of drought, even the colonists experienced long painful droughts. Coupled with the recent heatwave (which is itself not unique either) it is something that occurs relatively often.

[butterfly]

We have never seen it on this scale before...the fires or the heat wave(hottest consectutive days on record) and this is also one of the reasons I mention Northern China as well.
If you'd like I can gather a list of all the countries currently experiencing their worst period of drought on record.

What of that giant ice sheet that cracked in the US? Is this a typical phenomenon for that area?

[Yazman]

We have never seen it on this scale before...the fires or the heat wave(hottest consectutive days on record) and this is also one of the reasons I mention Northern China as well.
If you'd like I can gather a list of all the countries currently experiencing their worst period of drought on record.

What of that giant ice sheet that cracked in the US? Is this a typical phenomenon for that area?

These phenomena may be occurring simultaneously but this does not mean they are linked, and to infer such without significant evidence would be merely a fallacy.

I am not denying climate change however; I just don't think its the reason for the fires, especially considering there are already arson suspects, and arson has caused fires of similar scale in the past. It probably made the fires worse however. Heatwaves and bushfires are a regular occurrence in Australia, especially in those regions, and have been occurring since the beginning of recorded temperatures and (obviously) long before that. This is also not to mention that in some parts of Australia bushfires are an important part of the ecosystem, where some plantlife has adapted to such "disasters." Bushfires with high death tolls have occurred a lot in the past hundred years or so.

[butterfly]

These phenomena may be occurring simultaneously but this does not mean they are linked, and to infer such without significant evidence would be merely a fallacy.
There is no denying these incidents are linked and you have the scientific community to back this up.

[Rousedruminations]

yes i am from Australia... Victoria....Melbourne in fact ! the police suspect ARSON ! ... and it maybe...

and the devastation it has brought is moving some what when the people pour out all their emotions and are crying...

but i believe the reason for it happening is government neglect in maintaining the forestry, when the cleaning of and eliminating unnecessary forestry surrounding the trees, controlled burning of those areas should be done by the government ....

... and since most of that land was privately owned... all the government advice and encouragement did not heed to their need to do the same....

again a problem with private and state ownership ?:confused::)

[Module]

Sydney, Australia here.
I'm pretty sure they said 'at least a 3rd' of the fires are thought to be lit deliberately. Yesterday they said only 1 fire they knew for sure was.
The media here has made the connection between the bush fires and climate change. It has been unusually hot in Victoria recently and the news reports on the bush fires have commented on the possibilities of there being more fires like this in the future due to global warming.

[Killfacer]

England = not at the moment.

[ÑóẊîöʼn]

There is no denying these incidents are linked and you have the scientific community to back this up.

Really? Citations please.

[Yazman]

Really? Citations please.

Seconded.

[butterfly]

Let's start with the basics shall we?


Scientists have predicted climate change will trigger more so-called extreme weather events globally and in the UK, leading to more hot days, heat waves, heavy rain and storms [1]. The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change states: "Models project that increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases result in changes in frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme events, such as more hot days, heat waves, heavy precipitation events, and fewer cold days." Summers are expected to generally become hotter and drier, but storms could possibly become more severe in future [2].

http://www.media-bytes.co.uk/sites/climatechange/docs/weather.php

[ÑóẊîöʼn]

Let's start with the basics shall we?

http://www.media-bytes.co.uk/sites/climatechange/docs/weather.php

It's got the little number things in brackets, but they're not hyperlinked. I can't find a page with references on it either. You call that a citation?

In any case, six inches of snow last week says that the IPCC's vaunted models leave much to be desired.

[butterfly]

Oh please NoXion, I know your theoretical level is beyond the 'global warming? But it's cold outside!' rhetoric.


Climatologists say snowfall is more difficult to predict than rain because it depends on a broader range of factors, such as atmospheric temperature and the la nina phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean. What they do agree on, however, is that warmer atmospheres can hold more precipitation...

this season’s precipitation levels, combined with atypical temperature fluctuations, reflect what climate experts say will be some of the side effects of global warming. A study released last December by the group Environment Illinois suggests global warming will result in more extreme rain and snowfall as warmer temperatures speed up evaporation and allow clouds to hold more precipitation.

http://news.medill.northwestern.edu/chicago/news.aspx?id=79547

'Why a cold winter doesn't mean climate change is behind us';
http://arstechnica.com/science/news/2009/02/climate-data-ugliness-is-in-the-eye-of-the-beholder.ars

[Yazman]

Weather patterns have not been consistently odd for decades at a time let alone a single decade.. in a lot of places its only been this past few years.

[ÑóẊîöʼn]

Oh please NoXion, I know your theoretical level is beyond the 'global warming? But it's cold outside!' rhetoric.

My pointing out of the cold is not a denial of climate change, but a pointer that the IPCC's models are wrong or inaccurate.

It's pretty fucking cold in Alaska too (http://www.cnn.com/2009/US/02/09/rural.alaska.villages/index.html?iref=mpstoryview)

[Black Dagger]

Something i'd like to point out not mentioned so far... another factor contributing to these fires (besides arson and climate change) was the forest managment policy in Victoria. The Vic state and local govts. have come under fire for not pursuing more pro-active forest management policies. I.E. Forest clearing, back-burning etc. in order to prevent a situation like this ever being possible. Though obviously all of these factors played a part.

[DeLeonist]

The firefighters union has raised the issue of the connection between global warming and the fires, which has recieved a bit of coverage here.

On the other hand, there is probably more coverage in the reactionary press (which has the majority of the population captive) on blaming greenies for exacerbating the fires by resisting backburning, and on the hunt for arsonists who may have started some of the fires.

In relation to the relief effort, it's heartening to see people coming together in a humane way to help the victims and each other - a temporary break from the corruption of social relations by exchange values.

[butterfly]

The firefighters union has raised the issue of the connection between global warming and the fires, which has recieved a bit of coverage here.

That is really good to hear. Where is here if you don't mind me asking?

In relation to the relief effort, it's heartening to see people coming together in a humane way to help the victims and each other
It truely is:)

[DeLeonist]

I'm near Sydney - a long way from the current bushfires.

I can't post links at the moment, but if you google the following there is an article re the firefighter union stance :

'At risk' firies want urgent global warming action

[Rangi]

The link between the bush fires and climate change would be impossible to establish. Bush fires in Australia are a completely natural event, although not natural in this event as it has been established as arson.

The seeds of the Eucalyptus tree germinate when they reach extreme temperatures such as that created in a bush fire. The Eucalyptus tree has evolved to cope with the natural occurrence of bush fires. This illustrates that bush fires were happening long before man had gone through the industrial revolution or had invented the combustion engine.

I believe that global warming exists but I would be wary of pointing at any or all meteorological events or natural disasters and attributing them to global warming.

[Yazman]

In relation to the relief effort, it's heartening to see people coming together in a humane way to help the victims and each other - a temporary break from the corruption of social relations by exchange values.

On the contrary, it frustrates the hell out of me that the state isn't taking care of this like it should be. If we're going to have a state (which I do not really advocate) then surely it should be doing its job and not making its citizens foot the bill?

I would also like to point everybody to Rangi's post above as particularly important in this case.

[butterfly]

The link between the bush fires and climate change would be impossible to establish.
Yes, however an increase in bush fires due to climate change can certainly be established.

Bush fires in Australia are a completely natural event, although not natural in this event as it has been established as arson.

The drought, which Australia alone in experiencing is by no means a natural phenomenon at this point in history. When we can, quite blatantly see that not only are places experiencing drought for the first time, but these instances are increasing in severity, it is not difficult to make the correlation between climate change and drought and subsequently drought and an increased risk of bush fire.

The seeds of the Eucalyptus tree germinate when they reach extreme temperatures such as that created in a bush fire. The Eucalyptus tree has evolved to cope with the natural occurrence of bush fires. This illustrates that bush fires were happening long before man had gone through the industrial revolution or had invented the combustion engine.

I am by no means stating that bush fires and drought in general have not been historically natural, and am well aware bushfire is necessary for the regeneration of the Eco-system.
Thank you for the info on the evolution of the eucalypt though:D

I believe that global warming exists but I would be wary of pointing at any or all meteorological events or natural disasters and attributing them to global warming.
When we see an increase in instances and severity of these events, to not at least acknowledge that the cause may be attributed to climate change, is completely irresponsible. Full stop.



On the contrary, it frustrates the hell out of me that the state isn't taking care of this like it should be. If we're going to have a state (which I do not really advocate) then surely it should be doing its job and not making its citizens foot the bill?

Yeah you wouldn't be saying that if you were down here at the moment.
Yes we do have a state (a concept which I am completely against) that has failed to protect it's citizens. Their negligence exacerbated the situation, it is perhaps responsible for the loss of many lives and that's inexcusable.
We have entire communities in mourning from the devastation, but to see the international community step in and do what they can...the display of empathy devoid of geographical location, is something I would descibe as heartwarming.

[butterfly]

BTW The article DeLeoinist posted is worth a read: http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/02/12/2489847.htm
And so is this:
http://climateandcapitalism.com/?p=623

[Yazman]

When we see an increase in instances and severity of these events, to not at least acknowledge that the cause may be attributed to climate change, is completely irresponsible. Full stop.

its irresponsible and illogical to make assumptions before actually gathering conclusive data. There hasn't been an increase in instances of bushfires or drought in Australia. There have been consistent bushfires and drought in Australia going back centuries through to the pre-industrial period and in recent decades in particular there haven't really been abnormal ocurrences, not to mention that the drought in Australia is only regional in scale. There are parts getting plenty of rain.


Yeah you wouldn't be saying that if you were down here at the moment.

Yes, I would actually.. I have been in and around disaster areas before. The concept of charity is one that I am strongly opposed to philosophically.. it is a very capitalistic system conceptually. Assistance and protection needs to be institutionalised rather than a social phenomenon that pops up in isolated cases of disaster.


We have entire communities in mourning from the devastation, but to see the international community step in and do what they can...the display of empathy devoid of geographical location, is something I would descibe as heartwarming.

I wouldn't. Many of the charity organisations keep large portions of the proceeds to themselves and because charities are seen as inherently benevolent, even when they are organised as corporations, this goes under the radar. I am a member of St. John Ambulance which has recently adopted a corporate structure and although many see it as a benevolent organisation (and don't get me wrong, it can be) many of the people who are running it are primarily concerned with, you guessed it, MONEY! Even the Red Cross kept large portions of the Hurricane Katrina donations for itself.

It is good to know the victims are receiving much-needed assistance but it disgusts me that they have to get it from the private sector. You seem to prefer to sweep under the rug the state's negligence in this situation and their lack of real infrastructure for dealing with this sort of problem. They are literally pumping billions into bailouts yet we are told that only CHARITY can help out the fire victims? Give me a break! The state should be footing the bill.

[Rangi]

I agree with Yazman. The idea of disaster charity is like some kind of Russian roulette - The relief received isn't dependent on need it is dependent on luck and social factors.What if your disaster isn't that well covered by Channel 9?

What about Africa? Millions die there every year from completely preventable diseases, Malaria being the worst. How many aid agencies are there? I know I can count up to at least eight and that must surely be inefficient.

230 dead in Victoria. Price to put out a bushfire? Millions of dollars.

1200 dead from Cholera in Zimbabwe. Price of stopping Cholera? - It's free basically. A glass of clean water with a teaspoon of salt and a teaspoon of sugar stirred into it taken regularly will prevent death.

When you show me the data for the correlation between bushfires and burning fossil fuels I will believe you. You have opinions, now you need facts.

[The Author]

Is media coverage making the connection with climate change where you are located?

I would say no because every time I watch CNN or browse the Yahoo headlines on the internet on local storms and unusual weather in the area, there never is a correlation drawn between these patterns and global warming. I only see the connections on a documentary, never live news media as it is, which is interesting to note.

[butterfly]

I'm well aware of the lack of accountability and inequality involved...price of removing intellectual property pattents off much needed vaccinations and treatment therfore saving and improving the quality of life for thousands of people; nothing.
I'm not debating that issue here.
Unfortunatly I have yet to find a nice neat little graph over the internet so i'm affraid you'll have to do some reading for the time being.
Please read the following two articles.
One is specifically on the link between bushfires and climate change;http://209.85.175.132/search?q=cache:XOb4XPJEkAUJ:https://www.tai.org.au/file.php%3Ffile%3DWP92.pdf+Australian+bushfire+inc rease+CSIRO&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=10
The other on increased severity of global weather patterns;http://www.abc.net.au/science/news/stories/2006/1810439.htm
Enjoy.

[Itis]

I'm an anarchist who lives about 6 km/3.7 miles away from where the firefront got to.

Global warming may have contributed to the fires. I honestly don't think the slight increase in temperatures it probably has caused at this point in time contributed much more than what the lack of controlled burning and vegetation management did.

It is in no way reactionary to point out that local governments/councils in the bushfire areas had policies that stupidly gave a priority to keeping the bush in mint condition over fire safety. In my local council area (in which many people died in the fires) it is illegal to move or remove vegetation or fallen trees that are more than 30 feet away from your house (this even includes raking up leaf matter) or you have to get permits to remove any trees from your property. My local government actually actively tries to INCREASE the amount of vegetation. On top of this, they have severely limit the amount of controlled burning that the fire service is allowed to do because controlled burning (which is essential to our environment) apparently contributed to global warming.

When my family was getting our driving excavated, the man working that excavator couldn’t speak really English and knocked over a tree to get his excavator in to our property. We ended up getting fined about $500. Situations like this are pretty common. Isn’t local governments using power to prevent people from making their homes safer from the threat of fires at least slightly relevant to anarchists and non-anarchist socialists?

I’m not trying to say that this issue is the big reason why the fire was so intense or why those people died. But it contributed at least as much as global warming to the fire.

Oh yeah and just so you know, the reason why people died was because they had basically no warning whatsoever of the fire.

[butterfly]

Interesting to note, and reported on the front page of the Age yesterday, an additional 200 people lost their lives across the south east of Austalia during the heat wave that preceeded the fire which cosisteded of 3 consecutive days of 43 degrees celcius temperatures.